Modeling the potential public health and economic impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccination strategies using an adapted COVID-19 vaccine in Mexico.

IF 5.5 3区 医学 Q1 IMMUNOLOGY
Expert Review of Vaccines Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-15 DOI:10.1080/14760584.2025.2505087
Carlos Fernando Mendoza, Jose Luis Huerta, Iustina Chirila, Dania Abreu, Moe H Kyaw, Benjamin Yarnoff
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Abstract

Background: This study evaluated the impact of vaccination strategies using an adapted COVID-19 vaccine in Mexico.

Research design and methods: This study used a previously published combined Markov-decision tree model adapted for the Mexican context. The base case examined the population aged ≥ 65 years and the high-risk population (defined as those with one or more comorbidities associated with high risk of severe disease) aged 12-64 years. Scenario analyses examined lower age cutoffs for eligibility in the standard risk population (≥50 years, ≥18 years, and ≥12 years). Sensitivity analyses varying the parameters by ± 20% was conducted to assess uncertainty.

Results: Compared to no vaccination, the base case was estimated to prevent 1,509,194 cases, 132,166 hospitalizations 24,575 deaths, and 276,223 lost quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), increasing direct costs by $602,446,820 and decreasing societal cost by $2,264,266,271. The ICER was dominant from the societal perspective and $2,181 from the payer perspective, which was cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of 1× GDP per capita ($11,812). The benefits were further increased in scenarios expanding vaccination to additional age groups.

Conclusions: Vaccination strategies targeting a broader age range with an adapted vaccine would result in considerable health and economic benefits and be cost-effective in Mexico.

在墨西哥对使用适应性COVID-19疫苗的疫苗接种策略的潜在公共卫生和经济影响以及成本效益进行建模。
背景:本研究评估了在墨西哥使用适应性COVID-19疫苗接种策略的影响。研究设计和方法:本研究使用了先前发表的适用于墨西哥环境的马尔可夫决策树模型。基础病例检查了年龄≥65岁的人群和12 - 64岁的高危人群(定义为具有一种或多种与严重疾病高风险相关的合并症)。情景分析检查了标准危险人群(≥50岁、≥18岁和≥12岁)的较低年龄临界值。灵敏度分析将参数变化±20%以评估不确定度。结果:与不接种疫苗相比,基础病例估计可预防1,509,194例病例,132,166例住院,24,575例死亡,276,223例质量调整生命年(QALYs)损失,直接成本增加602,446,820美元,社会成本减少2,264,266,271美元。从社会角度来看,ICER占主导地位,从付款人的角度来看,ICER占2181美元,在人均GDP的1倍(11812美元)的支付意愿阈值下,ICER具有成本效益。在将疫苗接种扩大到其他年龄组的情况下,益处进一步增加。结论:针对更大年龄范围的疫苗接种策略,采用适应疫苗,将产生相当大的健康和经济效益,并且在墨西哥具有成本效益。
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来源期刊
Expert Review of Vaccines
Expert Review of Vaccines 医学-免疫学
CiteScore
9.10
自引率
3.20%
发文量
136
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: Expert Review of Vaccines (ISSN 1476-0584) provides expert commentary on the development, application, and clinical effectiveness of new vaccines. Coverage includes vaccine technology, vaccine adjuvants, prophylactic vaccines, therapeutic vaccines, AIDS vaccines and vaccines for defence against bioterrorism. All articles are subject to rigorous peer-review. The vaccine field has been transformed by recent technological advances, but there remain many challenges in the delivery of cost-effective, safe vaccines. Expert Review of Vaccines facilitates decision making to drive forward this exciting field.
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