Burden of disease in the Belt and Road countries from 1990 to 2021: analysis of estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2021.

Abstract

Background: As a newly emerging collaborative platform to boost regional growth and prosperity, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has great potential to promote global health development. However, the overall health status of BRI countries remains unclear. We analyzed the health patterns and its geographical distribution in 149 BRI countries from 1990 to 2021.

Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease 2021 (GBD 2021) online database, we examined time trends, country and income variations in death rate and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate, and compared the trends and projected 2030 values for ten key health-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) indicators among the 149 BRI countries.

Results: The number of deaths and DALYs of BRI countries represented 62.9-66.0% of global deaths and 64.8-66.8% of global DALYs between 1990 and 2021, and both the overall age-standardized death rate and DALY rate continued to be higher in BRI countries than in non-BRI countries throughout the time period studied. Great variations existed across the 149 BRI countries for both level of and changes in age-standardized death rate and DALY rate. The 2030 targets for six health-related SDGs indicators will not be reached in over 70% of BRI countries according to the previous changing speed trajectory.

Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate that BRI countries face a heavy burden of disease that varies across countries, although health outcomes have improved since 1990. Progress toward 2030 targets for six key health-related SDGs indicators in most BRI countries was slow. These findings support calls for more health collaborations, aid programs, and other health service to reduce health disparities across the BRI countries.