Short-Term Preliminary Evaluation of Suicide Following the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake in Japan Using Time Series Analysis.

IF 2.6 4区医学 Q3 PSYCHIATRY

Crisis-The Journal of Crisis Intervention and Suicide Prevention Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-30 DOI:10.1027/0227-5910/a001003

Takahiro Arai

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: The impact of earthquakes on mental health is profound. Aim: This study examines the short-term impact of the Noto Peninsula earthquake (magnitude 7.6) in Japan in January 2024 on the number of suicides and investigates the existence of the pulling together effect or honeymoon phase in suicide trends. Method: Suicide data from disaster-affected areas in Ishikawa Prefecture from January 2017 to June 2024 were analyzed using Poisson regression and prophet models. Results: Both models identified fewer suicides than predicted for 3 consecutive months (March-May 2024). This trend was observed even when the affected areas were subdivided into multiple regions. Limitations: Economic factors and data on suicide attempts or mental disorders were not included in the analysis. Conclusion: This study provides evidence supporting the pulling together effect or honeymoon phase, suggesting that increased community support following a disaster temporarily reduces suicide risk.

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利用时间序列分析对2024年日本诺托半岛地震后自杀行为的短期初步评估。

背景：地震对心理健康的影响是深远的。目的：研究日本2024年1月发生的诺托半岛7.6级地震对自杀人数的短期影响，并探讨自杀趋势中是否存在“拉扯效应”或“蜜月期”。方法：对2017年1月至2024年6月石川县受灾地区自杀数据进行泊松回归和先知模型分析。结果：连续3个月（2024年3月- 5月），两种模型的自杀率均低于预期。即使将受影响的地区细分为多个区域，也可以观察到这种趋势。局限性：经济因素和自杀企图或精神障碍的数据未包括在分析中。结论：本研究提供了支持团结效应或蜜月期的证据，表明灾难后社区支持的增加暂时降低了自杀风险。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Crisis-The Journal of Crisis Intervention and Suicide Prevention Multiple-

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

6.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： A must for all who need to keep up on the latest findings from both basic research and practical experience in the fields of suicide prevention and crisis intervention! This well-established periodical’s reputation for publishing important articles on suicidology and crisis intervention from around the world is being further enhanced with the move to 6 issues per year (previously 4) in 2010. But over and above its scientific reputation, Crisis also publishes potentially life-saving information for all those involved in crisis intervention and suicide prevention, making it important reading for clinicians, counselors, hotlines, and crisis intervention centers.