[Quantitative Identification of Impact of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on the Ecological Quality of Vegetation in the Shiyang River Basin over Past 20 Years].
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Abstract
Climate change and a series of anthropogenic activities have caused significant changes in vegetation. Quantitative identification of the relative contributions of climate change and anthropogenic activities to the interannual changes in vegetation ecological quality in the Shiyang River Basin is of great value for coping with future climatic challenges and implementing ecological protection measures in the Shiyang River Basin. Based on vegetation ecological quality （EQI）, combined with multi-source remote sensing data, this study utilized slope trend analysis, partial correlation analysis, and residual analysis to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation ecological quality change and the partial correlation relationship with climate factors in the Shiyang River Basin and explored the relative contribution of climate change and anthropogenic activities to EQI trend change. The results showed that： ① EQI in the Shiyang River Basin increased steadily from 2002 to 2021, and the growth rate of EQI in the mountain area and oasis was significantly higher than that in the desert area. From southwest to northeast, the distribution pattern increased first and then decreased, and the regions with a faster increase in EQI were distributed around the oasis edge. ② Both temperature and precipitation in the Shiyang River Basin increased during the recent 20 years, and the positive effect of precipitation factor on vegetation greening was greater than that of temperature. ③ Climate change and anthropogenic activities contributed 33% and 67%, respectively, to the increase of EQI in the Shiyang River Basin in the past 20 years, and the positive impact of anthropogenic activities on vegetation ecological quality was continuously strengthened. The research results provide important reference for the formulation of vegetation ecological protection and management policies in the Shiyang River basin.
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