[Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Ecosystem Service Value and Its Driving Factors in the Aksu River Basin].

Abstract

The ecological preservation and sustainable development of the Aksu River Basin, a key node in the "Belt and Road" plan, have a significant influence on the regional economy. Investigating the spatial and temporal evolution of ecosystem service value （ESV） and the factors that drive it in the Aksu River Basin is crucial for maximizing the health of the regional ecosystem, encouraging the coordinated growth of the ecological economy and construction, and fostering peaceful coexistence between humans and the natural world. The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of ESV in the study area were analyzed using the land use transfer matrix, revised equivalent factor method, sensitivity analysis, ESV tradeoff collaborative analysis, and geographic detector based on five periods of land use data from 2000 to 2020 in the Aksu River Basin. The outcome demonstrates that：① Between 2000 and 2020, grassland and unused land were the main land use types in the Aksu River Basin, accounting for more than 80% of the total land use area. The largest outflow area was grassland （1 373.22 km²）, while the largest inflow area was arable land （2 141.51 km²）. ② The ESV in the study area exhibited a fluctuating downward trend from 2000 to 2020, with the total value of ESV in 2020 decreasing by 15.96% compared to that in 2000. The ESV generally exhibited a declining trend from the northern region to the southern region. ③ The synergistic relationship was the primary association among ecosystem service functions in the study area, while the tradeoff relationship primarily existed between food, raw material production, and other service functions.④Temperature and precipitation were the dominant factors affecting the change of ESV in the study area, and the influence of climatic factors on ESV was generally high. The interactive detection results showed that the multi-factor synergistic effect affects the change of ESV in the Aksu River Basin. The q value of the interaction between annual precipitation, temperature, and ground temperature was generally high （up to 0.54）, and the interaction between any two driving factors was stronger than the effect of a single factor.