Multidimensional Loss Chasing among Online Gamblers: Assessing Optimized Thresholds for the Prediction of Gambling Harm.

Abstract

Loss chasing is a defining clinical criterion for Gambling Disorder. Using actual player records, we investigated the potential for a multidimensional loss chasing concept (based on bet size, betting odds, and time between bets) to predict potential gambling harm among online sports bettors (N = 36,331) and daily fantasy sports (DFS) players (N = 34,596). Our main focus was whether optimized thresholds (derived from ROC analysis) for loss chasing yielded greater predictive value than both median-derived thresholds and a natural continuous form. Compared to the other tested forms of chasing, optimized thresholds of loss chasing showed the most promise (i.e., positive and statistically significant effects and improved model fit) for two out of three dimensions (i.e., bet size and odds) for one outcome (i.e., loss trajectory) among sports bettors. For these bettors and outcomes, all three loss chasing dimensions predicted the outcome in isolation; however, grouping all three expressions into a single model yielded poor model fit. Loss chasing effects were less apparent (generally non-significant or in the negative direction) for another outcome (i.e., percent change in net loss) and among DFS players. Still, this study demonstrates the promise of a multidimensional concept of loss chasing, and the potential for optimized thresholds to improve prediction of potential harm-related outcomes.