Global, Regional, and National Incidence and Prevalence of Children With Peptic Ulcer Disease: A Temporal Trend and Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study

IF 1.6 4区医学 Q2 PEDIATRICS

Journal of paediatrics and child health Pub Date : 2025-04-15 DOI:10.1111/jpc.70058

Haosen Cui, Congfeng Xu, Yue Fan, Zhanyu Wang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

Identifying temporal trends in children with peptic ulcer disease (PUD) could enhance public awareness and inform future policy development.

Methods

Utilising data from GBD 2021, we analysed the incidence, prevalence and age-specific rates (ASR) of children with PUD from 1990 to 2021, conducting stratified analyses based on regional temporal variations. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was employed to project the global burden of children with PUD over the next 15 years.

Results

Globally, both the incidence and prevalence of children with PUD exhibited a marked decline, with incidence and prevalence cases decreasing by 0.93% and 3.67%, respectively. Regions with lower sociodemographic index (SDI) bore a heavier burden, with the highest incidence and prevalence observed in Oceania, Western sub-Saharan Africa and the Caribbean in 2021. By 2035, the global incidence and prevalence of children with PUD are projected to further decline.

Conclusion

While the global burden of children with PUD had significantly decreased, regional disparities persist. Low-SDI countries continue to face disproportionately high incidence and prevalence rates, warranting sustained attention and intervention.

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全球、地区和国家儿童消化性溃疡疾病的发病率和患病率：基于2021年全球疾病负担研究的时间趋势和贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列分析

背景：确定儿童消化性溃疡疾病（PUD）的时间趋势可以提高公众意识并为未来的政策制定提供信息。方法：利用GBD 2021的数据，分析1990 - 2021年PUD儿童的发病率、患病率和年龄特异性率（ASR），并根据区域时间变化进行分层分析。采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型预测未来15年全球PUD患儿的负担。结果：在全球范围内，儿童PUD的发病率和患病率均明显下降，发病率和患病率分别下降了0.93%和3.67%。社会人口指数（SDI）较低的区域负担更重，2021年大洋洲、撒哈拉以南非洲西部和加勒比地区的发病率和流行率最高。到2035年，全球PUD儿童的发病率和患病率预计将进一步下降。结论：虽然PUD患儿的全球负担已显著降低，但地区差异依然存在。低sdi国家继续面临不成比例的高发病率和流行率，需要持续关注和干预。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of paediatrics and child health 医学-小儿科

CiteScore

2.90

自引率

5.90%

发文量

487

审稿时长

3-6 weeks

期刊介绍： The Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health publishes original research articles of scientific excellence in paediatrics and child health. Research Articles, Case Reports and Letters to the Editor are published, together with invited Reviews, Annotations, Editorial Comments and manuscripts of educational interest.