Global, regional and national burden of pancreatitis in children and adolescents, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021.

Abstract

Background: Pancreatitis poses a significant global health burden, disproportionately affecting children and adolescents. This study uses the global burden of disease (GBD) 2021 dataset to evaluate pancreatitis epidemiology in this demographic, focusing on disparities by age, sex, and region.

Objective: To assess global trends in pediatric pancreatitis, identify risk factors, and forecast disease burden to 2035.

Methods: We analysed GBD 2021 data on deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for pancreatitis in individuals under 20. The socio-demographic index (SDI) assessed the link between societal development and health outcomes. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modelling and Poisson's linear models were applied to project future burdens and estimate annual percentage changes (EAPCs) in age-standardized rates.

Results: In 2021, pancreatitis caused 1120.09 deaths in children and adolescents, comprising 2% of all pancreatitis-related deaths. Age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and DALYs rate declined from 1990 to 2021 (EAPC -0.92 and -0.86, respectively). Low-middle SDI regions, notably Andean and Central Latin America and Eastern Europe, faced the highest burden. Alcohol was a leading risk factor, accounting for 3.51% of related deaths, and males had higher death and DALYs rate.

Conclusions: Despite declining pancreatitis-related mortality and DALYs, the disease remains a challenge, particularly in low-middle SDI regions. Alcohol consumption is a key risk factor, underscoring the need for targeted public health interventions. Gender-, age-, and region-specific strategies are essential to mitigate pancreatitis impact in children and adolescents.