Disease Burden of Neck Pain in China from 1990 to 2021 and Its Prediction for 2042: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

IF 2.5 3区 医学 Q2 CLINICAL NEUROLOGY
Journal of Pain Research Pub Date : 2025-04-11 eCollection Date: 2025-01-01 DOI:10.2147/JPR.S516118
Jiaming Wei, Kexin Yang, Jiarui Xue, MingYi Luo, Wei Peng, Xunlu Yin, Wu Sun, Chunyu Gao, Guangfei Teng, He Yin, Minshan Feng, Luguang Li, Kai Sun, Wei Zhang
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Purpose: This study, aimed to report the rates and trends of the prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability caused by neck pain in the general population of China from 1990 to 2021 and forecast the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life Years (DALYs) from 2022 to 2042.

Methods: We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2021. The annual percentage change (APC) and average APC between 1990 and 2021 were calculated using joinpoint regression analysis. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to forecast the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rates between 2022 and 2042.

Results: From 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of neck pain in China showed a clear upward trend, with age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardised prevalence rate (ASPR), and DALYs rates being significantly higher in females than in males. Especially in terms of DALYs, Aging has had the largest impact, contributing 61.88% of the increase, while population growth has accounted for 32.43%. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the incidence and prevalence of neck pain in China increased gradually from 2000 to 2021. Data from 2021 showed that individuals aged 45-59 years are the most affected by neck pain, regardless of sex. The prediction results of the ARIMA model indicate that China's ASIR and ASPR for neck pain are projected to continue increasing over the next 20 years.

Conclusion: Neck pain is a serious public health problem in the general Chinese population. This may be related to changes in people's lifestyles and work patterns due to improvements in societal well-being and technology. Raising awareness of the risk factors for neck pain in the general population could help reduce the future burden of neck disorders, and neck pain should be a priority for future research on prevention and therapy.

1990 - 2021年中国颈部疼痛疾病负担及其对2042年的预测:2021年全球疾病负担研究
目的:本研究旨在报告1990年至2021年中国普通人群中由颈部疼痛引起的残疾的患病率、发病率和生存年限的比率和趋势,并预测2022年至2042年的发病率、患病率和残疾调整生命年(DALYs)。方法:我们使用的数据来自2021年全球疾病负担研究(GBD)。利用联合点回归分析计算了1990—2021年的年变化百分比(APC)和平均APC。采用自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)模型预测2022年至2042年间的发病率、患病率和DALYs率。结果:1990 - 2021年,中国颈部疼痛疾病负担呈明显上升趋势,女性的年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)、年龄标准化患病率(ASPR)和DALYs率均显著高于男性。特别是在DALYs方面,老龄化对DALYs的影响最大,占增量的61.88%,而人口增长占32.43%。关节点回归分析显示,从2000年到2021年,中国颈部疼痛的发病率和患病率逐渐上升。2021年的数据显示,45-59岁的人受颈部疼痛的影响最大,不分性别。ARIMA模型的预测结果表明,中国颈部疼痛的ASIR和ASPR预计在未来20年内将继续增加。结论:颈部疼痛是中国普遍存在的严重公共卫生问题。这可能与由于社会福利和技术的改善而改变了人们的生活方式和工作模式有关。提高普通人群对颈部疼痛危险因素的认识有助于减轻未来颈部疾病的负担,颈部疼痛应成为未来预防和治疗研究的重点。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Journal of Pain Research
Journal of Pain Research CLINICAL NEUROLOGY-
CiteScore
4.50
自引率
3.70%
发文量
411
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Journal of Pain Research is an international, peer-reviewed, open access journal that welcomes laboratory and clinical findings in the fields of pain research and the prevention and management of pain. Original research, reviews, symposium reports, hypothesis formation and commentaries are all considered for publication. Additionally, the journal now welcomes the submission of pain-policy-related editorials and commentaries, particularly in regard to ethical, regulatory, forensic, and other legal issues in pain medicine, and to the education of pain practitioners and researchers.
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