Establishment and analysis of the prediction model for the prognosis of children with sepsis based on pSOFA score.

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the prognostic risk factors of sepsis in children diagnosed based on the pediatric sequential organ failure assessment (pSOFA) scoring system, and to establish and evaluate related prediction model.

Methods: This was a retrospective study. Two hundred and seventy three children with sepsis admitted to Hebei Children's Hospital from January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2022 were divided into survival group and mortality group according to the prognosis. Multivariate Logisitic regression was used to analyze the independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of septic children, and a predictive model was established to analyze the predictive value of the model on the prognosis of septic children.

Results: The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that systemic vascular resistance index (SVRI) <1143, febrile neutropenia (FN) and pSOFA score were independent risk factors for sepsis-related death in children. This equation of 5.140+2.069 × (SVRI<1143) + 1.718 × FN+0.290 × pSOFA score indicates that, the area under the ROC curve of the prediction model is greater than that of SVRI<1143, FN, and pSOFA score alone, and the sensitivity and specificity of the model were 81.5% and 84.5%, respectively.

Conclusion: The prediction model has a good clinical predictive value and has practical significance for the prognosis evaluation and treatment guidance.