Can Religious Fasting Nudge People to Smoke Less? Evidence from Ramadan.

Abstract

Introduction: In this study, we examine whether religiosity affects people's levels of smoking. We use the month of Ramadan, a sacred month for Muslims, as an exogenous change for religiosity. In this month, there is less opportunity to smoke for fasters.

Methods: First, we conducted a survey at different times: once before Ramadan, four times during Ramadan (one survey per week), and once after Ramadan. Secondly, we utilized monthly administrative cigarette sales data between 2009-2020.

Results: Individual level data from the survey shows that full fasters reduce their smoking by 53% drop during Ramadan compared to the pre-Ramadan sample. Cigarette sales drop as much as 14% in the month of Ramadan in Turkey overall. A regular Ramadan day lowers cigarette sales around 0.8%. Reduction in Ramadan is much higher in more religious provinces.

Conclusion: This study demonstrates that limiting the opportunity to smoke can be an effective way to reduce smoking.

Implications: Based on two complementary studies-a six-wave survey of 769 individuals and an analysis of provincial-level cigarette sales from 2009 to 2020-this research shows that Ramadan significantly reduces smoking intensity and cigarette sales. Full fasters decreased smoking by 53%, and national cigarette sales fell by 14%. The effect was more pronounced in more religious provinces. These findings suggest that even short-term restrictions on smoking opportunities can lead to substantial behavioral changes, despite the addictive nature of tobacco use. These findings offer valuable insights for public health policies aiming to reduce smoking through culturally sensitive and opportunity-limiting interventions.