Clinical and radiological predictive features for high-grade and invasive carcinoma in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms: A systematic review.

Abstract

Background/purpose: Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) progress from low-grade dysplasia to high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or invasive carcinoma (IC). High diagnostic accuracy is critical for surgical decision-making.

Methods: We searched Medline, Embase, and Cochrane Library from January 1, 2015, to January 27, 2025. Eligible studies reported on resected IPMNs, assessing diagnostic features for HGD/IC. Two reviewers screened articles, extracted data, and assessed bias using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Descriptive statistics summarized outcomes. The performance of worrisome features (WFs) and high-risk stigmata (HRS) based on International Association of Pancreatology guidelines were evaluated.

Results: In the 53 studies, 12 953 patients were included. HRS including obstructive jaundice and enhancing mural nodules ≥5mm showed robust specificity for HGD/IC, while main pancreatic duct size ≥10mm showed variable diagnostic accuracy. WFs such as cyst size ≥3 cm performed poorly, while cyst growth rate >3.5 mm/year demonstrated higher sensitivity (88%) and specificity (91%). Although rare, abrupt caliber change with distal atrophy was a robust predictor of malignancy (median odds ratio: 3.01). Acute pancreatitis and lymphadenopathy displayed variable value. Incremental improvement in diagnostic accuracy was observed with additional HRS or WFs.

Conclusions: Current diagnostic markers are valuable but provide limited guidance for surgical decision-making in IPMNs, highlighting the need for further refinement of diagnostic tools.