[Carbon Emission Accounting and Peak Carbon Prediction of China's Construction Industry from a Whole Life Cycle Perspective].

Abstract

Carbon emission accounting and carbon peak prediction are the prerequisites for carbon reduction in the current construction industry in China, constituting an important basis for fulfilling the responsibility of carbon reduction. To accurately depict the evolutionary trend of carbon emissions in the construction industry, the carbon emissions of the Chinese construction industry were calculated in stages, based on a full life cycle perspective. The Pearson test was used to select the factors influencing carbon emissions in the construction industry, and an extended STIRPAT model was established. The logarithmic mean Divisia index （LMDI） method was used to analyze the factors in the extended model and calculate the contribution rate of each factor influencing carbon emission. Finally, a multivariate nonlinear regression prediction model based on ASO-BP was constructed to explore the evolution of carbon emissions in the construction industry under multiple scenarios, and policy suggestions were proposed for material production, building operation, and construction. The research results showed： ① Under a small sample environment, the atom search algorithm was superior to other traditional intelligent algorithms in terms of prediction accuracy and time. ② Under multiple scenarios, the Chinese construction industry will achieve carbon peaking in 2030； however, under the current population growth scenario, the construction industry will not reach its peak until 2031, lagging behind in the carbon peaking target. ③ Population changes will lead to the postponement of carbon peaking in three stages, particularly having a considerable impact on the operational stage.