Performance prediction and athlete categorization using the anaerobic speed reserve in 400m sprinters.

Abstract

Objectives: To provide an integrative framework of endurance performance, the anaerobic speed reserve gained increasing popularity in middle-distance running. The present study investigated athlete profiles and performance predications based on the anaerobic speed reserve framework in 400m athletes.

Design: Descriptive laboratory study.

Methods: Maximal oxygen uptake, lactate threshold (vL4), maximal sprinting speed, maximal aerobic speed, and speed reserve ratio (speed reserve ratio; maximal sprinting speed:maximal aerobic speed) of national level and elite German 400m-sprinters (n = 13 females, age [yrs]: 20.8 ± 3.1, personal best (PB400) [s]: 55.1 ± 3.0 & n = 5 males, age: 22.8 ± 3.1, PB400: 46.7 ± 1.0) were assessed. A prediction model for 400m performance was computed via stepwise multiple regression. K-means clustering was calculated based on the speed reserve ratio.

Results: Maximal sprinting speed, maximal aerobic speed and vL4 showed moderate to large negative bivariate correlations with 400m performance (-0.61 < r < -0.94; p ≤ 0.008). Backward stepwise regression revealed maximal sprinting speed and maximal aerobic speed as strong predictors for 400m performance (adjusted R² = 0.90, standard error of the estimate = 1.447 s [2.6 %]). K-means clustering revealed two distinct subgroups along the speed reserve ratio-continuum (sprint-type: speed reserve ratio ≥1.81; endurance-type: speed reserve ratio ≤1.77).

Conclusions: Maximal sprinting speed and maximal aerobic speed are powerful predictors for 400m performance, with vL4 also being associated with 400m performance. Speed reserve ratio calculation enables a differentiation between 400m sprint-type and endurance-type athletes. The interplay of maximal sprinting speed and maximal aerobic speed enables a broader understanding of the contributing factors to 400m performance. These parameters may support coaches in programming training tailored to individual needs during different training periods.