Other musculoskeletal disorders in China, 1990-2021, and projections to 2050: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Abstract

Objectives: Other musculoskeletal disorders showed a growing burden globally, but data specific to China remain sparse. This study aims to analyze the burden of other musculoskeletal disorders in China from 1990 to 2021 using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021.

Methods: Decomposition analysis, Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort, and Age-Period-Cohort models were utilized to investigate the key influencing factors and project future burden.

Results: In China, the prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was 85.0 (72.4-99.4) million in 2021, with a 20% increase from 1990. The number of Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) was 7.6 (5.2-10.6) million in 2021, indicating a 18.1% rise. Although age-standardized mortality rate remained stable, deaths number increased from 5,279.4 (4,289.9-6,724.3) to 9,166.9 (7,000.8-11,693.4). Females consistently showed higher rates than males, while China remained below the global average in prevalence, DALYs, and mortality. Population growth was the predominant contributor to the burden's increase in China, showing a different pattern from other BRICS countries. Prevalence is projected to triple by 2050, while DALYs and mortality may decline. For Age-Period-Cohort analysis of mortality, net drift was below zero. Age effects exhibited a significant increase after age group 70-75. Period effects played a negative role after 2004-2005. Cohort effects revealed a notable decrease among more recent generation.

Conclusions: The burden of other musculoskeletal disorders in China is increasing with sex, age, and regional differences. Future growth in prevalence is predicted for this category of disorders, highlighting the need for effective public health policies and tailored interventions. Key Points • The burden of other musculoskeletal disorders in China is substantial and has been growing from 1990 to 2021, with significant sex, age, and regional differences. • Population growth is the predominant contributor to the increased burden of other musculoskeletal disorders in China, showing a distinct pattern compared to other BRICS countries.