Regional burden, trends, and future projections of chronic kidney disease due to type 2 diabetes mellitus in South Asia: insights from the global burden of disease study (1990-2021) and ARIMA forecasting.

IF 2.7 Q3 ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM

Expert Review of Endocrinology & Metabolism Pub Date : 2025-05-12 DOI:10.1080/17446651.2025.2502620

Lovely Jain, Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib, Rangaswamy Roopashree, Mandeep Kaur, Manish Srivastava, Amit Barwal, G V Siva Prasad, Pranchal Rajput, Rukshar Syed, Gajendra Sharma, Sunil Kumar, Edward Mawejje, Sakshi Pandey, Manvinder Brar, Ganesh Bushi, Rachana Mehta, Sanjit Sah, Prakasini Satapathy, Shailesh Kumar Samal

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) due to Type 2Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) is an increasing health burden in South Asia. This study evaluates the burden, trends, and future projections of CKD from 1990-2021 using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data and ARIMA modeling.

Research design and methods: We analyzed age-standardized rates (ASR) for prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs of CKD due to T2DM in South Asia(India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal). Join point regression and ARIMAmodels were applied for trend analysis and projections.

Results: From 1990 to 2021, prevalence decreased slightly (e.g. India: 5.4% to 5.2%), while mortality increased (e.g.Pakistan: 33.7 to 42.1 per 100,000). Incidence increased across all countries, with Nepal (1.3% increase) and Bhutan (1.7% increase) showing the highest growth. Projections indicate a continued rise in CKD burden, especially inNepal and India.

Conclusion: CKD due to T2DM is increasing, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions.

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南亚2型糖尿病引起的慢性肾脏疾病的区域负担、趋势和未来预测：来自全球疾病负担研究（1990-2021）和ARIMA预测的见解

背景：2型糖尿病（T2DM）引起的慢性肾脏疾病（CKD）在南亚是一个日益严重的健康负担。本研究利用全球疾病负担（GBD）数据和ARIMA模型评估1990-2021年间CKD的负担、趋势和未来预测。研究设计和方法：我们分析了南亚（印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、不丹、尼泊尔）T2DM所致CKD的患病率、发病率、死亡率和DALYs的年龄标准化率（ASR）。采用联结点回归和arimmodels进行趋势分析和预测。结果：从1990年到2021年，患病率略有下降（如印度：5.4%至5.2%），而死亡率有所上升（如巴基斯坦：每10万人33.7至42.1人）。所有国家的发病率都有所增加，其中尼泊尔（增加1.3%）和不丹（增加1.7%）的增长率最高。预测显示慢性肾病负担持续上升，特别是在尼泊尔和印度。结论：T2DM所致CKD正在增加，强调有针对性干预的必要性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Expert Review of Endocrinology & Metabolism ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM-

CiteScore

4.80

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Implicated in a plethora of regulatory dysfunctions involving growth and development, metabolism, electrolyte balances and reproduction, endocrine disruption is one of the highest priority research topics in the world. As a result, we are now in a position to better detect, characterize and overcome the damage mediated by adverse interaction with the endocrine system. Expert Review of Endocrinology and Metabolism (ISSN 1744-6651), provides extensive coverage of state-of-the-art research and clinical advancements in the field of endocrine control and metabolism, with a focus on screening, prevention, diagnostics, existing and novel therapeutics, as well as related molecular genetics, pathophysiology and epidemiology.