Trends, patterns, and risk factors of esophageal cancer mortality in China, 2008–2021: A national mortality Surveillance System data analysis

IF 11.4 1区综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

Journal of Advanced Research Pub Date : 2025-05-15 DOI:10.1016/j.jare.2025.05.021

Yunfei Jiao, Tinglu Wang, Lin Fu, Ye Gao, Zhiyuan Cheng, Lei Xin, Jinfang Xu, Han Lin, Wei Wang, Maigeng Zhou, Jinlei Qi, Zhaoshen Li, Luowei Wang

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Abstract

Introduction

According to the International Agency for Research on Cancer, China had the highest mortality burden of esophageal cancer (EC) globally in 2022.

Objectives

This study aims to analyze the national and provincial trends, patterns, and risk factors of EC deaths in China.

Methods

Data from the National Mortality Surveillance System were used to estimate national and provincial deaths, age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), and years of life lost (YLL). An age-period-cohort-based Nordpred model was used to predict trends until 2030. Multilevel Poisson and logistic regression were conducted to assess factors influencing EC mortality and the place of death.

Results

From 2008 to 2021, EC deaths and YLLs decreased from 227,677 to 167,529 and from 5.32 million to 3.50 million, respectively. Meanwhile, the ASMR and age-standardized YLL rate decreased from 24.34 to 11.01 per 100,000 and from 535.91 to 231.08 per 100,000, respectively. By 2030, EC deaths and ASMR are predicted to decline to 150,768 and 7.85 per 100,000, respectively. Nationwide, the average age at death increased from 68.46 to 72.45 years, with an increasing proportion of YLLs in the 65–69 age group. Overall premature mortality was observed to decrease, except for an increase in YLLs among urban populations aged ≥60 years. Higher burdens were observed in rural areas compared to urban areas and among males compared to females. Nationwide, individuals with agriculture-related occupations and lower educational levels exhibited significantly higher risks of EC death. Regions with higher prevalences of smoking and harmful drinking, and lower educational, economic, and medical levels were significantly associated with high mortality. Home was the leading place of EC deaths (80.02 %).

Conclusion

The EC mortality burden in China is decreasing but remains a significant threat to public health. Promoting education, occupational prevention, healthy lifestyles, and medical treatment for targeted populations and regions is essential.

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2008-2021年中国食管癌死亡率趋势、模式和危险因素：国家死亡率监测系统数据分析

根据国际癌症研究机构（International Agency for Research on Cancer）的数据，2022年中国食管癌（EC）死亡率负担全球最高。目的分析全国及各省乙脑死亡趋势、模式及危险因素。方法采用国家死亡率监测系统的数据估计全国和各省的死亡人数、年龄标准化死亡率（ASMRs）和生命损失年数（YLL）。一个基于年龄阶段队列的Nordpred模型被用来预测到2030年的趋势。采用多水平泊松回归和logistic回归评估影响EC死亡率和死亡地点的因素。结果从2008年到2021年，EC死亡人数从227,677人下降到167,529人，yll从532万人下降到350万人。同时，ASMR和年龄标准化YLL率分别从24.34 / 10万下降到11.01 / 10万，从535.91 / 10万下降到231.08 / 10万。到2030年，预计EC死亡和ASMR分别降至每10万人150,768人和7.85人。在全国范围内，平均死亡年龄从68.46岁增加到72.45 岁，65-69岁年龄组的死亡人数比例增加。除了≥60岁 岁的城市人群中yll增加外，总体过早死亡率下降。农村地区的负担高于城市地区，男性的负担高于女性。在全国范围内，从事农业相关职业和受教育程度较低的个体，其EC死亡风险显著较高。吸烟和有害饮酒流行率较高、教育、经济和医疗水平较低的地区与高死亡率显著相关。家中是EC死亡的主要场所（80.02 %）。结论中国EC死亡率负担正在下降，但仍对公共卫生构成重大威胁。在目标人群和地区促进教育、职业预防、健康生活方式和医疗至关重要。

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来源期刊

Journal of Advanced Research Multidisciplinary-Multidisciplinary

CiteScore

21.60

自引率

0.90%

发文量

280

审稿时长

12 weeks

期刊介绍： Journal of Advanced Research (J. Adv. Res.) is an applied/natural sciences, peer-reviewed journal that focuses on interdisciplinary research. The journal aims to contribute to applied research and knowledge worldwide through the publication of original and high-quality research articles in the fields of Medicine, Pharmaceutical Sciences, Dentistry, Physical Therapy, Veterinary Medicine, and Basic and Biological Sciences. The following abstracting and indexing services cover the Journal of Advanced Research: PubMed/Medline, Essential Science Indicators, Web of Science, Scopus, PubMed Central, PubMed, Science Citation Index Expanded, Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ), and INSPEC.