The burden of ischemic heart disease among women of childbearing age in China from 1990 to 2021, and projections for the next 15 years.

IF 2.4 3区医学 Q2 OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY

BMC Women's Health Pub Date : 2025-05-13 DOI:10.1186/s12905-025-03773-5

Chuankun Zhang, Penghui Yang, Qijian Yi

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: There are no studies on the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) among women of childbearing age (WCBA) in China. This study aims to describe the IHD burden among WCBA in China from 1990 to 2021, predict the trends over the next 15 years, and identify the contributing factors associated with IHD-related deaths.

Methods: The data was extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Database 2021. The Direct age-standardized method was used to estimate the age-standardized (AS) prevalence rate (ASPR), mortality rate (ASMR), incidence rate (ASIR), and disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR) of IHD among WCBA. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to analyze the Annual Percent Change and Average Annual Percent Change from 1990 to 2021. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model was used to predict the trend over the next 15 years.

Results: From 1990 to 2021, the ASPR and ASIR increased by 17.44% and 25.83%, culminating in 616.50 (95% UI, 498.42-762.38) and 79.93 (95% UI, 49.43-113.88) cases per 100,000 individuals. Conversely, the ASMR and ASDR declined to 5.17 (95% UI, 4.14-6.33) and 261.24 (95% UI, 212.03-318.03) cases per 100,000 individuals. Over the next 15 years, the ASPR is projected to increase by 25.74%, culminating in 775.20 (95% UI, 637.98-912.42) cases per 100,000 individuals. The main contributor to increased IHD-related deaths among WCBA in China was high low-density lipoprotein.

Conclusions: Despite the significant decline in the ASMR and ASDR of IHD among WCBA in China over the last 30 years, the ASPR and ASIR continue to increase. Additionally, the ASPR is projected to rise over the next 15 years. These findings emphasize that effective measures and timely interventions are needed to reduce the disease burden.

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1990 - 2021年中国育龄妇女缺血性心脏病负担及未来15年预测

背景：中国育龄妇女缺血性心脏病（IHD）负担研究尚缺乏。本研究旨在描述1990年至2021年中国WCBA的IHD负担，预测未来15年的趋势，并确定与IHD相关死亡的相关因素。方法：数据从全球疾病负担数据库2021中提取。采用直接年龄标准化方法估计WCBA中IHD的年龄标准化患病率（asr）、死亡率（ASMR）、发病率（ASIR）和残疾调整生命年率（ASDR）。采用联结点回归分析方法对1990 - 2021年的年变化百分比和年均变化百分比进行分析。采用自回归综合移动平均模型对未来15年的趋势进行预测。结果：1990 - 2021年，ASPR和ASIR分别增加了17.44%和25.83%，分别达到616.50例（95% UI, 498.42 ~ 762.38）和79.93例(95% UI, 49.43 ~ 113.88) / 10万人。相反，ASMR和ASDR分别下降至5.17 （95% UI, 4.14 ~ 6.33）和261.24 (95% UI, 212.03 ~ 318.03) / 10万人。未来15年，ASPR预计将增加25.74%，达到每10万人775.20例（95% UI, 637.98-912.42）。中国WCBA中ihd相关死亡增加的主要原因是高低密度脂蛋白。结论：尽管近30年来中国WCBA IHD患者的ASMR和ASDR显著下降，但asr和ASIR持续上升。此外，预计未来15年的ASPR将会上升。这些发现强调，需要采取有效措施和及时干预措施来减轻疾病负担。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

BMC Women's Health OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY-

CiteScore

3.40

自引率

4.00%

发文量

444

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： BMC Women''s Health is an open access, peer-reviewed journal that considers articles on all aspects of the health and wellbeing of adolescent girls and women, with a particular focus on the physical, mental, and emotional health of women in developed and developing nations. The journal welcomes submissions on women''s public health issues, health behaviours, breast cancer, gynecological diseases, mental health and health promotion.