Clinical Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Updated 2023/24 COVID-19 mRNA Vaccination in High-Risk Populations in the United States.

Abstract

Introduction: In the post-pandemic era, people with underlying medical conditions continue to be at increased risk for severe COVID-19 disease, yet COVID-19 vaccination uptake remains low. This study estimated the clinical and economic impact of updated 2023/24 Moderna COVID-19 vaccination among high-risk adults versus no 2023/24 vaccination and versus updated Pfizer/BioNTech vaccination.

Methods: A static Markov model was adapted for high-risk adults, including immunocompromised (IC), chronic lung disease (CLD), chronic kidney disease (CKD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), and diabetes mellitus (DM) populations in the United States (US).

Results: Vaccination with the updated Moderna vaccine at current coverage rates was estimated to prevent considerable COVID-19 hospitalizations in CLD (101,309), DM (97,358), CVD (47,830), IC (14,834), and CKD (13,558) populations versus no 2023/24 vaccination. Vaccination also provided net medical cost-savings of US$399 million (M)-2129M (healthcare payer) and $457M-2531M (societal perspective), depending on population. The return-on-investment was positive across all conditions ($1.10-$2.60 gain for every $1 invested). Healthcare savings increased with a relative 10% increase in current vaccination coverage ($439M-$2342M), and from meeting US 2030 targets of 70% coverage ($1096M-$5707M). Based on higher vaccine effectiveness observed in real-world evidence studies, updated Moderna vaccination was estimated to prevent additional COVID-19 hospitalizations in DM (13,105), CLD (10,359), CVD (6241), IC (1979), and CKD (942) versus Pfizer/BioNTech's updated vaccine, with healthcare payer and societal cost-savings, making it the dominant strategy. Healthcare savings per patient vaccinated with Moderna versus Pfizer/BioNTech's updated vaccine were $31.00-$59.00, depending on population. Results were robust across sensitivity/scenario analyses.

Conclusions: Updated 2023/24 Moderna COVID-19 vaccination was estimated to provide significant health benefits through prevention of COVID-19 in high-risk populations, and cost-savings to healthcare payers and society, versus no 2023/24 vaccination and updated Pfizer/BioNTech vaccination. Increasing current low COVID-19 vaccination coverage rates was estimated to be cost-saving while preventing many more severe infections and hospitalizations in these high-risk populations. A graphical abstract is available with this article.