Modeling the potential public health and economic impact of COVID-19 vaccination strategies using an adapted vaccine in Peru.

Abstract

Background: This study evaluated the impact of various vaccination strategies using an adapted vaccine in Peru.

Research design and methods: Using a previously published combined Markov-decision-tree model adapted for Peru, this study estimated the outcomes of different vaccination strategies targeting various age and risk groups. The model used age-specific epidemiology, clinical, cost, and quality-of-life inputs derived from the published literature and national surveillance data. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess uncertainty.

Results: The vaccination strategy targeting older adults aged ≥ 60 years and the high-risk population between 12 and 59 years old with a 24% vaccine uptake was estimated to prevent 78,483 symptomatic cases, 2,962 hospitalizations, 103 deaths, and 2,913 lost QALYs compared with no vaccination, translating to an incremental decrease of $12,856,654 in total direct costs and an incremental decrease of $35,090,748 in total societal costs. These gains were further increased by expanding vaccination to additional age groups and increasing vaccine uptake.

Conclusions: Vaccination in the population aged ≥ 60 years and the high-risk population between 12 and 59 years old in Peru was projected to yield substantial health and economic benefits. The impact could be substantially increased by expanding eligibility to younger age groups and increasing vaccine uptake.