Identifying New Risk Factors for Comorbidities in the Elderly.

IF 3.1 3区医学 Q3 GERIATRICS & GERONTOLOGY

Gerontology Pub Date : 2025-03-21 DOI:10.1159/000545175

Yuge Jiang, Ping Liu, Yi Liu, Zhuyun Gong, Longhe Xu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Introduction: This is a cross-sectional design to evaluate high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and fasting blood glucose (FBG) as novel biomarkers for assessing the risk of geriatric comorbidities. Based on data from 316 patients with geriatric comorbidities, participants were selected through hospital records according to predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. The primary outcome measures include the impact of HDL-C and FBG levels on the severity of comorbidities and the calibration and decision utility of the nomogram prediction model. The study also explores the clinical value of the nomogram model in managing the risk of geriatric comorbidities amidst the aging population.

Methods: Multiple statistical methods, including logistic regression, Lasso regression, and calibration analysis, were used to assess the associations of the above factors and evaluate the performance of the nomogram prediction model. The model demonstrated high predictive accuracy in internal and external validation, with nearly perfect calibration performance observed in the external validation. Decision curve analysis further confirmed the model's high clinical utility and benefit.

Results: HDL-C was significantly negatively associated with the risk of geriatric comorbidities (odds ratio [OR] = 0.387, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.286-0.547, p < 0.05), while FBG was positively associated with comorbidity risk (OR = 1.050, 95% CI: 1.129-2.136, p < 0.05). The nomogram model demonstrated high predictive accuracy in internal and external validation, with nearly perfect calibration performance observed in the external validation. Decision curve analysis further confirmed the model's high clinical utility and benefit.

Conclusion: This study underscores the importance of HDL-C and FBG as critical biomarkers for assessing comorbidity risk in the elderly and reveals the potential application of the nomogram prediction model in the risk prediction and management of elderly comorbidities. These findings support using these indicators in predicting and intervening comorbidities in the elderly, providing substantial evidence for further research and clinical practice.

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识别老年人合并症的新危险因素。

简介：一项评估高密度脂蛋白胆固醇（HDL-C）和空腹血糖（FBG）作为评估老年合并症风险的新型生物标志物的横断面设计。根据来自316例老年合并症患者的数据，根据预先确定的纳入和排除标准，通过医院记录选择参与者。主要结果测量包括HDL-C和FBG水平对合并症严重程度的影响，以及nomogram预测模型的校准和决策效用。该研究还探讨了nomogram模型在老年人群中管理老年合并症风险的临床价值。方法：采用logistic回归、Lasso回归、校正分析等多种统计方法，对上述因素的相关性进行评估，并对nomogram预测模型的性能进行评价。该模型在内部和外部验证中具有较高的预测精度，在外部验证中具有近乎完美的校准性能。决策曲线分析进一步证实了该模型具有较高的临床实用性和效益。结果：HDL-C与老年合并症风险呈显著负相关（比值比[OR] = 0.387, 95%可信区间[CI]: 0.286 ~ 0.547, P < 0.05），而FBG与合并症风险呈正相关（OR = 1.050, 95% CI: 1.129 ~ 2.136, P < 0.05）。模态图模型在内部和外部验证中均具有较高的预测精度，在外部验证中具有近乎完美的校准性能。决策曲线分析进一步证实了该模型具有较高的临床实用性和效益。结论：本研究强调了HDL-C和FBG作为评估老年人合并症风险的重要生物标志物的重要性，揭示了Nomogram预测模型在老年合并症风险预测和管理中的潜在应用。这些发现支持使用这些指标来预测和干预老年人的合并症，为进一步的研究和临床实践提供了实质性的证据。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Gerontology 医学-老年医学

CiteScore

6.00

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： In view of the ever-increasing fraction of elderly people, understanding the mechanisms of aging and age-related diseases has become a matter of urgent necessity. ''Gerontology'', the oldest journal in the field, responds to this need by drawing topical contributions from multiple disciplines to support the fundamental goals of extending active life and enhancing its quality. The range of papers is classified into four sections. In the Clinical Section, the aetiology, pathogenesis, prevention and treatment of agerelated diseases are discussed from a gerontological rather than a geriatric viewpoint. The Experimental Section contains up-to-date contributions from basic gerontological research. Papers dealing with behavioural development and related topics are placed in the Behavioural Science Section. Basic aspects of regeneration in different experimental biological systems as well as in the context of medical applications are dealt with in a special section that also contains information on technological advances for the elderly. Providing a primary source of high-quality papers covering all aspects of aging in humans and animals, ''Gerontology'' serves as an ideal information tool for all readers interested in the topic of aging from a broad perspective.