Effective Strategies for Accelerating the Phase-Out of Mercury Thermometers in Underdeveloped Regions: A Critical Step Towards Implementing the Minamata Convention on Mercury.

Abstract

This study proposes targeted policy strategies to phase out mercury thermometers, especially in developing regions, under the Minamata Convention on Mercury. By integrating a tripartite evolutionary game framework with system dynamics simulation, it examines the decision-making behaviors of government agencies, manufacturing enterprises, and consumers. The methodology involves six steps: player selection, assumption formulation, payoff determination, dynamic equation construction, stability analysis, and system dynamics simulation. Key parameters-such as fines, subsidies, and production costs-are defined using a combination of empirical data and theoretical assumptions. Framed within an environmental governance and pollution control framework, the model captures the mercury thermometer industry's transition from widespread adoption to gradual decline amid rising health and environmental concerns. By incorporating policy-driven transition logic, the research traces the mercury thermometer industry's evolution from widespread use to decline amid rising health concerns. The findings highlight government's central role through policy tools-such as market price adjustments, penalties, and subsidies-that can effectively eliminate mercury thermometers. Notably, reducing the price gap between mercury and alternative products, coupled with significant consumer subsidies, proves more effective in driving consumer choices and prompting manufacturers to embrace mercury-free production than imposing heavy fines. These measures are pivotal for advancing the adoption of safer, mercury-free thermometers and reducing associated public health risks.