Projected climate suitability for Hungarian tourism in the 21st century: application of the Holiday Climate Index and modified Tourism Climate Index.

IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 BIOPHYSICS
International Journal of Biometeorology Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-16 DOI:10.1007/s00484-025-02901-y
Attila Kovács, Gergely Molnár, Otília A Megyeri-Korotaj
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Climatic factors significantly influence travellers' destination selection and demand for tourism products. To maintain sustainable tourism development, it is essential to monitor how tourist destinations will be affected by the projected future changes in the climate system. This study aims to reveal the future impact of climate change for tourism sector in Hungary using the Holiday Climate Index specified for urban tourism (HCI-Urban) and a modified version of Tourism Climate Index (mTCI). The paper employs an ensemble of multiple climate models (ALADIN5.2 and REMO2015) and emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to determine the future evolution of indices. Initially, the reference climatic conditions derived from the observational dataset CarpatClim-HU are presented. Then, the climate model results are validated against the observational database for both indices. Afterwards, bias-corrected model outputs are analysed for the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 based on the ensemble of models and scenarios. The spatial distributions of indices are depicted on a monthly level and at a Hungarian district spatial scale. Both the observational and model results highlight that the climatic conditions are more favourable in spring and autumn compared to the summer months. It is also demonstrated that the climatic conditions in Hungary are expected to be more favourable or unchanged from autumn until spring, while there is a general worsening in summer. In terms of the future directions, larger uncertainties are found in May and September. Based on the anticipated trends, the paper pinpoints sector-specific recommendations for adapting tourism services to the altered climatic conditions.

预测21世纪匈牙利旅游业的气候适宜性:假日气候指数和修正旅游气候指数的应用
气候因素显著影响旅游者的目的地选择和旅游产品需求。为了保持旅游业的可持续发展,必须监测旅游目的地如何受到预测的未来气候系统变化的影响。本研究旨在利用城市旅游假期气候指数(HCI-Urban)和旅游气候指数(mTCI)的修改版本揭示气候变化对匈牙利旅游业的未来影响。本文采用ALADIN5.2和REMO2015两种气候模式和RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种排放情景组合确定了指数的未来演变。首先,给出了来自carpatclimo - hu观测数据集的参考气候条件。然后,将气候模式的结果与两个指数的观测数据库进行对比验证。然后,基于模式和情景集合,分析了2041-2070年和2071-2100年期间的偏差校正模式输出。指数的空间分布以月为单位,以匈牙利地区为空间尺度。观测结果和模式结果都强调,春季和秋季的气候条件比夏季更为有利。报告还表明,匈牙利的气候条件预计从秋季到春季将较为有利或不变,而夏季则普遍恶化。就未来走势而言,5月和9月的不确定性较大。根据预测的趋势,本文提出了使旅游服务适应变化的气候条件的具体部门建议。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.40
自引率
9.40%
发文量
183
审稿时长
1 months
期刊介绍: The Journal publishes original research papers, review articles and short communications on studies examining the interactions between living organisms and factors of the natural and artificial atmospheric environment. Living organisms extend from single cell organisms, to plants and animals, including humans. The atmospheric environment includes climate and weather, electromagnetic radiation, and chemical and biological pollutants. The journal embraces basic and applied research and practical aspects such as living conditions, agriculture, forestry, and health. The journal is published for the International Society of Biometeorology, and most membership categories include a subscription to the Journal.
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