A return on investment analysis for the 2017 increase in alcohol excise taxation in Lithuania.

IF 5.2 1区医学 Q1 PSYCHIATRY

Addiction Pub Date : 2025-05-06 DOI:10.1111/add.70083

Jürgen Rehm, Pol Rovira, Ahmed S Hassan, Claire de Oliveira, Shannon Lange, Mark J Thompson, Ilona Tamutienė, Vaida Liutkutė-Gumarov, Lukas Galkus, Mindaugas Štelemėkas

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Aims: To conduct a return on investment analysis of Lithuania's 2017 increase in alcohol excise taxation of 112% for beer, 111% for wine, and 23% for ethyl alcohol (spirits), resulting in a marked decrease in alcohol affordability.

Methods: Economic analyses based on costs of the increased taxation and economic benefits derived from a societal perspective. Costs were measured according to World Health Organization standards, based on Lithuanian public data. Benefits were derived from the difference of direct (healthcare, childcare, legal) and indirect costs between 12 months pre- and post-enactment of the policy. All costs and benefits were expressed in 2023 Euros (€).

Results: Overall, there were net benefits from reductions in productivity losses and increases in tax revenue. Tax revenue increased by 20%, or more than €100 million, in the first-year post enactment, and productivity losses decreased over the same time period by about €35.3 million (95% confidence interval [CI]: -51.9 to -17.1; proportionally -7%; 95% CI: -11.0% to -4.0%), the latter based on marked reductions in premature mortality in all alcohol-attributable causes of death. In addition, healthcare costs decreased by about €3.8 million (95% CI: -8.4 to +0.1; proportionally -5%; 95% CI: -11.0% to +0.1%). On the other hand, childcare and legal costs increased compared with the year before, by €5.3 million (no 95% CI possible; proportionally: +7%) and €4.6 million (95% CI: +0.2 to +8.0; proportionally +5%; 95% CI: +0.3 to +8.7%), respectively. The final return on investment was 420 to 1, i.e. for each Euro invested, the return was €420. In the sensitivity analyses, the return on investment varied between 292 to 1 and 530 to 1, meaning that all assumptions resulted in a very positive return.

Conclusions: The increase in excise taxation for alcohol on March 1, 2017 in Lithuania created a large return on investment and reduced alcohol-attributable mortality and hospitalizations.

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2017年立陶宛酒精消费税增加的投资回报分析。

目的：对立陶宛2017年增加的酒精消费税进行投资回报分析，啤酒增加112%，葡萄酒增加111%，酒精（烈酒）增加23%，导致酒精负担能力显著下降。方法：从社会角度对增税成本和经济效益进行经济分析。费用是根据立陶宛的公共数据，按照世界卫生组织的标准计算的。福利金来自于政策颁布前后12个月的直接（医疗保健、儿童保育、法律）和间接费用的差额。所有成本和收益均以2023欧元表示。结果：总体而言，生产力损失的减少和税收收入的增加带来了净收益。在实施后的第一年，税收收入增加了20%，即超过1亿欧元，而同期生产力损失减少了约3530万欧元(95%置信区间[CI]: -51.9至-17.1；比例-7%;95% CI: -11.0%至-4.0%)，后者基于所有酒精导致的死亡原因中过早死亡率的显著降低。此外，医疗保健费用减少了约380万欧元(95%置信区间：-8.4至+0.1；比例-5%;95% CI: -11.0%至+0.1%)。另一方面，与前一年相比，儿童保育和法律费用增加了530万欧元(95%可信区间不可能；比例：+7%)和460万欧元(95%置信区间：+0.2至+8.0；按比例+ 5%;95% CI: +0.3 ~ +8.7%)。最终投资回报率为420比1，即每投资一欧元，回报为420欧元。在敏感性分析中，投资回报率在292比1和530比1之间变化，这意味着所有假设都导致了非常积极的回报。结论：2017年3月1日立陶宛酒精消费税的增加创造了巨大的投资回报，并降低了酒精导致的死亡率和住院率。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Addiction 医学-精神病学

CiteScore

10.80

自引率

6.70%

发文量

319

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： Addiction publishes peer-reviewed research reports on pharmacological and behavioural addictions, bringing together research conducted within many different disciplines. Its goal is to serve international and interdisciplinary scientific and clinical communication, to strengthen links between science and policy, and to stimulate and enhance the quality of debate. We seek submissions that are not only technically competent but are also original and contain information or ideas of fresh interest to our international readership. We seek to serve low- and middle-income (LAMI) countries as well as more economically developed countries. Addiction’s scope spans human experimental, epidemiological, social science, historical, clinical and policy research relating to addiction, primarily but not exclusively in the areas of psychoactive substance use and/or gambling. In addition to original research, the journal features editorials, commentaries, reviews, letters, and book reviews.