Short-term wind power forecast with turning weather based on DBSCAN-RFE-LightGBM

Abstract

At present, the wind power prediction technology is becoming more and more mature, however, the turning weather brings a decrease in prediction accuracy due to its suddenness and instability. In this paper, a wind power prediction method considering the turning period and non-turning period respectively is proposed to weaken the adverse effects caused by turning weather. Firstly, the prediction effects of multiple models are compared, density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) is selected as the outlier processing method, recursive feature elimination (RFE) is used as the feature selection method, and Light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) is used for prediction. The combined prediction method based on DBSCAN-RFE-LightGBM can reduce the influence of abnormal data and redundant features and improve the prediction effect. Then, the sliding window is set to detect the turning period. Considering that the turning weather is an emergency and does not happen frequently, the amount of data is small, which leads to the inability to train the model well. Generative adversarial networks (GAN) are applied to expand the turning period data. The LightGBM is trained and predicted by using the expended turning period data. Finally, the time-division prediction results are merged. Using the data collected from wind farms for short-term power prediction experiments, the time-segment prediction method proposed in this paper with GAN reduces MAE by 1.913 and RMSE by 3.351 on a single unit compared with the non-differentiated period.