Investment decision analysis approach for urban V2G projects based on value network

IF 12 1区工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY

Sustainable Cities and Society Pub Date : 2025-05-09 DOI:10.1016/j.scs.2025.106440

Suliang Liao , Yuping Huang , Weijia Yang , Ying Li

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study develops an innovative system dynamics model to optimize Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) investment and accelerate sustainable urban energy transitions. Addressing critical gaps in previous research, the model integrates (1) multi-stakeholder dynamics, (2) nonlinear feedback mechanisms, and (3) uncertainty quantification for market and behavioral parameters. Results reveal key value creation mechanisms within the urban V2G ecosystem. Case studies across three urban contexts highlight significant optimization potential, with ROI improvements of 24.5 %,11.13 % and 23.87 % driven by targeted subsidy adjustments (e.g., 0.3→0.6 CNY/kWh, 0.4→0.25 CNY/kWh) and infrastructure investments (up to 1.69× increase). Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that ancillary price fluctuations influence project value 2.4× more than technological factors, with 60 % demand reductions causing 46.57 %-52.05 % value erosion across different cities. The proposed model serves as a scalable decision-support tool, enabling scenario-based optimization and informed investment strategies to drive the transition toward sustainable urban energy systems.

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基于价值网络的城市V2G项目投资决策分析方法

本研究建立了一个创新的系统动力学模型，以优化车辆到电网（V2G）投资，加速可持续的城市能源转型。该模型集成了(1)多利益相关者动力学，(2)非线性反馈机制，(3)市场和行为参数的不确定性量化，解决了以往研究的关键空白。研究结果揭示了城市V2G生态系统中的关键价值创造机制。在三个城市背景下的案例研究强调了显著的优化潜力，通过有针对性的补贴调整（例如，0.3→0.6元/千瓦时，0.4→0.25元/千瓦时）和基础设施投资（增加1.69倍），投资回报率提高了24.5%，11.13%和23.87%。敏感性分析表明，配套价格波动对项目价值的影响是技术因素的2.4倍，不同城市60%的需求下降造成46.57% - 52.05%的价值侵蚀。该模型可作为可扩展的决策支持工具，实现基于场景的优化和明智的投资策略，以推动向可持续城市能源系统的过渡。

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来源期刊

Sustainable Cities and Society Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development

CiteScore

22.00

自引率

13.70%

发文量

810

审稿时长

27 days

期刊介绍： Sustainable Cities and Society (SCS) is an international journal that focuses on fundamental and applied research to promote environmentally sustainable and socially resilient cities. The journal welcomes cross-cutting, multi-disciplinary research in various areas, including: 1. Smart cities and resilient environments; 2. Alternative/clean energy sources, energy distribution, distributed energy generation, and energy demand reduction/management; 3. Monitoring and improving air quality in built environment and cities (e.g., healthy built environment and air quality management); 4. Energy efficient, low/zero carbon, and green buildings/communities; 5. Climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban environments; 6. Green infrastructure and BMPs; 7. Environmental Footprint accounting and management; 8. Urban agriculture and forestry; 9. ICT, smart grid and intelligent infrastructure; 10. Urban design/planning, regulations, legislation, certification, economics, and policy; 11. Social aspects, impacts and resiliency of cities; 12. Behavior monitoring, analysis and change within urban communities; 13. Health monitoring and improvement; 14. Nexus issues related to sustainable cities and societies; 15. Smart city governance; 16. Decision Support Systems for trade-off and uncertainty analysis for improved management of cities and society; 17. Big data, machine learning, and artificial intelligence applications and case studies; 18. Critical infrastructure protection, including security, privacy, forensics, and reliability issues of cyber-physical systems. 19. Water footprint reduction and urban water distribution, harvesting, treatment, reuse and management; 20. Waste reduction and recycling; 21. Wastewater collection, treatment and recycling; 22. Smart, clean and healthy transportation systems and infrastructure;