Input-output model for forecasting economic and environmental effects of smart meters deployment in Poland

Abstract

To the best of our knowledge this paper is the first attempt to estimate the macroeconomic and environmental effects that can be generated by widespread deployment of smart meters. The study applies macroeconomic data published by Central Statistical Office of Poland, and data developed in the framework of the Energy Transition Observatory (ETO) – a strategic project run by AGH University of Krakow, the Ministry of Climate and Environment of Poland, and the National Centre for Nuclear Research. Based on the collected dataset, unit investment and operational IO multipliers were calculated by means of an extended Leontief IO model, which set the ground for estimating the dynamics of three types of macroeconomic effects (employment, value added, global production) and climate and environmental effects (CO₂ emissions), as well as the green energy production effects (feasible system and share of RES) for the three considered development scenarios of the discussed technology until 2040. The results show that it is possible to seek to maintain an almost constant level of approximately 6000 of full-time jobs in the smart meters industry in 2031–2040 in all the three scenarios under consideration. The proposed research framework may be straightforwardly applied in analogous case studies focused on other countries.