Niche specialization modeling and potential occurrence of pest species within the rice stink bug complex in the Americas: to each his own?

Abstract

Human-induced changes, such as climate variability and escalating anthropogenic pressures, profoundly impact species distribution, dispersal, and competitive interactions worldwide. In the Neotropical region, the expansion of rice cultivation under these conditions has facilitated the spread of species within the rice stink bug complex, notably Oebalus species. Among these species, Oebalus pugnax prevails in the United States (US) and O. poecilus in Neotropical America co-occurring with O. ypsilongriseus, which was recently introduced into the US. This study explores the determinants and predictive variables influencing the occurrence and overlap of rice stink bugs, utilizing maximum entropy species distribution modeling to project their potential distribution. Precipitation and temperature were identified as pivotal factors shaping the ecological niche of O. pugnax in the US, while sensitivity to dry spells appears instrumental in the niche specialization of Neotropical species such as O. ypsilongriseus and O. poecilus. Notably, O. pugnax shows potential for establishment in South America, whereas O. ypsilongriseus and O. poecilus exhibit potential to establish in the southeastern US. Prospects that may aggravate concerns with their potential economic losses under the current trends on global climate changes. Although bioclimate-based distribution modeling provides valuable insights into habitat suitability and species distribution, future research should focus on delineating thermal and humidity thresholds for their development, as well as elucidating interspecific relationships. These endeavors are essential for enhancing our comprehension of their distribution dynamics and assisting in the design of effective pest management strategies, taking advantage of the biological peculiarities and susceptibility to different control methods by each individual species.