Modeling the impact of harmful algal blooms on aquatic life and human health

Abstract

Harmful algal blooms pose a significant and growing threat to aquatic ecosystems worldwide, largely driven by excessive nutrient enrichment. These blooms disrupt ecological balance, degrade water quality, and have profound socioeconomic consequences. To address this pressing issue, this study presents a mathematical model that captures the complex interplay between nutrients, algae, fish, and human population. The model incorporates critical ecological processes, including algae growth dynamics, nutrient cycling, predation of algae by fish, and the detrimental effects of harmful algal blooms on fish and human population. By integrating these interactions, the model explores the feedback mechanisms that govern the ecosystem’s stability and resilience. Using bifurcation analysis, the model identifies key thresholds and critical points that determine shifts in the system’s dynamical behavior, revealing the presence of saddle-node, transcritical, and Hopf bifurcations. These findings highlight the delicate balance within aquatic ecosystems and the potential for abrupt transitions between stable states under varying environmental conditions. This study provides a robust theoretical foundation for understanding the mechanisms driving harmful algal blooms’ formation and persistence. It emphasizes the need for integrated management strategies that address both ecological and human dimensions, offering insights into sustainable approaches for mitigating the impacts of harmful algal blooms.