{"title":"Health for the future: spatiotemporal CA-MC modeling and spatial pattern prediction via dendrochronological approach for nickel and lead deposition","authors":"Oznur Isinkaralar, Kaan Isinkaralar, Hakan Sevik","doi":"10.1007/s11869-025-01702-x","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Nonpoint source pollution (P<sub>NS</sub>) poses a significant environmental challenge owing to its adverse impacts on public health and ecological sustainability. Knowing the spatial pattern of heavy metals (HMs), one of the toxic substances, in the organization of urban space and the production of zoning decisions, both in the selection of pollution sources and living spaces, is immensely guiding today and in the future. The city of Düzce may be susceptible to public health risks attributed to the accumulation of HMs from escalating urbanization activities. This study aims to reach the reasons of P<sub>NS</sub> by modeling nickel (Ni) and lead (Pb) concentrations, their spatial distributions, and how they may be spatially in the future. For Ni and Pb toxic substances, accumulation was analyzed based on annual tree rings (ATRs) of the same species, and future predictions were made based on the complex structure of the spatial pattern. The concentrations accumulated in <i>Picea orientalis</i> L. ATRs between 2018 and 2023 were analyzed. Predictions of 2028 were produced according to the low > middle > high classification by dividing the space into 500 × 500 m grids via Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The accuracy of the produced model was determined as R<sup>2</sup> = 0.9412 for Ni and R<sup>2</sup>=0.9882 for Pb. Design strategies at different scales were presented with a novel approach by examining the plan decisions of the area that reflected alarming results.</p><h3>Graphical abstract</h3><div><figure><div><div><picture><source><img></source></picture></div></div></figure></div></div>","PeriodicalId":49109,"journal":{"name":"Air Quality Atmosphere and Health","volume":"18 4","pages":"1087 - 1099"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Air Quality Atmosphere and Health","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11869-025-01702-x","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Nonpoint source pollution (PNS) poses a significant environmental challenge owing to its adverse impacts on public health and ecological sustainability. Knowing the spatial pattern of heavy metals (HMs), one of the toxic substances, in the organization of urban space and the production of zoning decisions, both in the selection of pollution sources and living spaces, is immensely guiding today and in the future. The city of Düzce may be susceptible to public health risks attributed to the accumulation of HMs from escalating urbanization activities. This study aims to reach the reasons of PNS by modeling nickel (Ni) and lead (Pb) concentrations, their spatial distributions, and how they may be spatially in the future. For Ni and Pb toxic substances, accumulation was analyzed based on annual tree rings (ATRs) of the same species, and future predictions were made based on the complex structure of the spatial pattern. The concentrations accumulated in Picea orientalis L. ATRs between 2018 and 2023 were analyzed. Predictions of 2028 were produced according to the low > middle > high classification by dividing the space into 500 × 500 m grids via Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The accuracy of the produced model was determined as R2 = 0.9412 for Ni and R2=0.9882 for Pb. Design strategies at different scales were presented with a novel approach by examining the plan decisions of the area that reflected alarming results.
期刊介绍：
Air Quality, Atmosphere, and Health is a multidisciplinary journal which, by its very name, illustrates the broad range of work it publishes and which focuses on atmospheric consequences of human activities and their implications for human and ecological health.
It offers research papers, critical literature reviews and commentaries, as well as special issues devoted to topical subjects or themes.
International in scope, the journal presents papers that inform and stimulate a global readership, as the topic addressed are global in their import. Consequently, we do not encourage submission of papers involving local data that relate to local problems. Unless they demonstrate wide applicability, these are better submitted to national or regional journals.
Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health addresses such topics as acid precipitation; airborne particulate matter; air quality monitoring and management; exposure assessment; risk assessment; indoor air quality; atmospheric chemistry; atmospheric modeling and prediction; air pollution climatology; climate change and air quality; air pollution measurement; atmospheric impact assessment; forest-fire emissions; atmospheric science; greenhouse gases; health and ecological effects; clean air technology; regional and global change and satellite measurements.
This journal benefits a diverse audience of researchers, public health officials and policy makers addressing problems that call for solutions based in evidence from atmospheric and exposure assessment scientists, epidemiologists, and risk assessors. Publication in the journal affords the opportunity to reach beyond defined disciplinary niches to this broader readership.
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