Landscape management strategy for cultivated land ecosystem: New evidence from differentiation of supply and demand dynamics

Abstract

Effective landscape management plays a crucial role in promoting the sustainability of cultivated land ecosystems and mitigating land degradation. While traditional research has primarily focused on the supply of cultivated land ecosystem functions (CLEFs), it has often overlooked the complex dynamics of societal demand, especially the theoretical framework for landscape management of cultivated land systems integrating supply and demand, nonlinear models and parameters for demand-side multi-scenario simulation, and accurate threshold boundaries rather than simple impact effect. This study addresses this gap by constructing a theoretical framework based on pattern-process, developing a methodological framework to predict CLEFs supply-demand under multiple scenarios, and using threshold regression to explore the boundaries of landscape patterns impact on CLEFs in Wuhan across various scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The findings reveal heterogeneous effects arising from different mismatch types, highlighting variations in the effectiveness and thresholds of landscape regulatory measures. Specifically, landscape patterns were found to influence CLEFs through single and double thresholds. In regions with insufficient supply, thresholds under SSP1–1.9 were reached later compared to SSP2–4.5, whereas in areas with surplus supply, these thresholds were reached more quickly. Additionally, under SSP5–8.5, the transition from exacerbating to alleviating mismatches in grain production in undersupplied regions was shown to depend on technological advancements and improved resilience to climatic extremes. By elucidating the non-linear interactions between landscape patterns and CLEFs, this study provides valuable insights into achieving sustainability in coupled human-natural systems and addressing the challenges posed by urbanization and climate change.