Record Warmth of 2023 and 2024 was Highly Predictable and Resulted From ENSO Transition and Northern Hemisphere Absorbed Shortwave Anomalies

IF 4.6 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-13 DOI:10.1029/2025GL115614

Eduardo Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Roberto Bilbao, Aaron Donohoe, Stefano Materia

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Abstract

Global mean temperature rapidly warmed during 2023, making 2023 the second warmest year on record at 1.45°C above pre-industrial climate, and 2024 became the first year on record to surpass 1.5°C. Here we explore the likelihood, mechanisms, and predictability of the rapid warming during 2023 with CMIP simulations and a fully-coupled forecast ensemble initialized on 1 November 2022. The year-to-year (Y2Y) warming for the second half of 2023 of 0.49°C equaled the largest on record since 1850, and is simulated as a 1 in 6,000 years event. The forecast ensemble-mean predicts about 75% of the observed warming during 2023. The remaining 25% of the warming lies within the forecast spread, with members that forecast a strong 2023 El Niño and positive absorbed shortwave anomalies more likely to forecast the entirety of the observed warming. The forecast ensemble succesfully predicts 2024 to be the first year on record above 1.5°C.

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2023年和2024年的创纪录升温具有高度可预测性，其原因是ENSO转变和北半球吸收的短波异常

2023年全球平均气温迅速升温，使2023年成为有记录以来第二热的年份，比工业化前的气候高出1.45摄氏度，2024年成为有记录以来首次超过1.5摄氏度。本文利用CMIP模拟和2022年11月1日初始化的全耦合预报集合，探讨2023年快速变暖的可能性、机制和可预测性。2023年下半年的年变暖（Y2Y）为0.49°C，相当于1850年以来有记录以来的最大变暖，并被模拟为6000年一遇的事件。预报集合平均值预测了2023年观测到的75%的变暖。其余25%的变暖存在于预测范围内，预测2023年厄尔尼诺Niño强和正吸收短波异常的成员更有可能预测整个观测到的变暖。预测集合成功地预测2024年将是有记录以来首次超过1.5°C。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Geophysical Research Letters 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

9.00

自引率

9.60%

发文量

1588

审稿时长

2.2 months

期刊介绍： Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) publishes high-impact, innovative, and timely research on major scientific advances in all the major geoscience disciplines. Papers are communications-length articles and should have broad and immediate implications in their discipline or across the geosciences. GRLmaintains the fastest turn-around of all high-impact publications in the geosciences and works closely with authors to ensure broad visibility of top papers.