Determinants of Crime in India—Does Conviction Matter?

Abstract

This study examines the impact of legal deterrence and socioeconomic factors on total crime and different types of violent and economic crimes across 23 Indian states from 2001 to 2021. Conviction rate and police strength are used as legal deterrence factors controlling for various other socioeconomic factors. Employing a dynamic panel data model, our findings suggest that a higher conviction rate lowers the incidence of attempted murder, death by negligence, kidnapping and abduction, counterfeiting, cheating, and criminal breach of trust. Although police strength has a nonlinear relationship with different types of crime, it varies between concave and convex relationships depending on the type of crime. Using a novel proxy indicator for economic inequality at the state level in India, nighttime light inequality, our study finds it to be positively related to attempted murder and cheating offences. We also control for inflation at the state level and find it to be positively related to total crime. Further, although economic opportunities for the literate population reduce violent crimes, they also increase economic crimes like criminal breach of trust. The findings highlight the importance of a multipronged strategy such as improving the conviction rate and other socioeconomic factors to combat crime effectively at the state level in India.