Exploring the decoupling effect and driving mechanism of carbon emissions at macroscale: An empirical study from Wuhan metropolitan area

Abstract

Addressing global climate change and reducing carbon dioxide emissions are critical priorities for sustainable development. Exploring the decoupling effect of carbon emissions at the macro scale is essential for understanding regional disparities, optimizing spatial resource allocation, and guiding coordinated low-carbon transitions across diverse geographical contexts. Using the Wuhan Metropolitan Area as a case study, this research first measured the spatiotemporal characteristics of carbon emissions in 2010, 2015, and 2020, and then analyzed their correlations with economic development intensity and land use intensity. Subsequently, the decoupling effect of carbon emissions was assessed for the periods 2010–2015 and 2015–2020. Furthermore, employing a random forest model and considering natural and social factors, the study explored the driving mechanisms of carbon emission decoupling effects. Finally, the study applied the K-means clustering algorithm to develop a cross-city co-decoupling strategy for carbon emissions at the metropolitan scale. The results reveal that: (1) During 2010–2020, the total carbon emissions in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area exhibited an increasing trend, with high-carbon-emission regions demonstrating a significant expansion. (2) Over the same period, economic development intensity and land use intensity were positively correlated with carbon emissions, and their interaction had a synergistic effect that exacerbated emissions. (3) The decoupling effects of carbon emissions differed between economic and land use dimensions, with contraction at the economic level and expansion at the land use level. Both natural and social factors influenced decoupling effects, with natural factors accounting for 24.85 %–31.72 % and social factors for 68.28 %–75.15 % of the variation, driven by fractional vegetation cover and residential, industrial, and transportation activities, respectively. (4) The Wuhan Metropolitan Area can be classified into four types of low-carbon regulatory zones: comprehensive carbon reduction zones, transportation-residential reduction zones, industrial reduction zones, and residential reduction zones. Specific strategies were developed within each zone to achieve co-decoupling of carbon emissions.