Technical and economic analysis for the implementation of photovoltaic systems in agricultural zones of Mexico City: A case study

Abstract

Global population growth and industrial expansion intensify demands for water, energy, food, and arable land. At the same time, climate change and land degradation threaten agricultural productivity. By 2050, food production must increase by 60 %, yet projections show that yields may decline by 10 %, which will worsen resource scarcity. This study evaluates Agrivoltaic Systems (APVS) as a sustainable solution for agricultural challenges in Xochimilco, Mexico City. Rural farmers there face energy poverty, aquifer contamination, and reliance on fossil fuels for irrigation. We analyze three scenarios: 1) Business As Usual (BAU), which uses fossil fuel-dependent pumps; 2) APVS-powered electric pumping; and 3) APVS with integrated water treatment. We assess the economic and environmental impacts over the systems' lifespans. Results show that replacing fossil fuel pumps with APVS reduces operational costs by 60–70 %, yielding a net present value (NPV) of $8900 per system and mitigating 12.6 tCO_2e annually. While APVS-powered pumping offers clear economic and environmental advantages, integrating water treatment requires initial subsidies to offset high capital costs ($114 million USD for 3500 systems). However, treated water enhances crop quality and market value, aligning with sustainable practices by eliminating agrochemical use. The study demonstrates APVS's scalability, with potential deployment across 3500 chinampas (traditional farms), saving 11 million USD in fuel costs and reducing 44,100 tCO_2e annually. This framework supports energy access, climate resilience, and food security by coupling renewable energy with water treatment. The integrated assessment framework developed in this study, combining techno-economic analysis with sustainability metrics and sensitivity testing, provides a replicable model for evaluating renewable energy solutions in contaminated agricultural contexts worldwide, emphasizing policy support to enhance viability. This work underscores APVS as a pathway to decouple agricultural productivity from fossil fuels, fostering economic, health, and environmental co-benefits.