Exploring the carbon neutrality pathway for China's aluminium industry: An analysis from 1950 to 2060

IF 10.1 1区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-05-12 DOI:10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126090

Xueyuan Zhu , Qiang Jin

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Abstract

China's aluminium industry is responsible for 55 % of the GHG emissions from global aluminium production. With China's ambitious net-zero emission goal, exploring a carbon neutrality pathway for the aluminium industry is essential. In this study, we traced historical GHG emissions from China's aluminium production since 1950, revealing cumulative emissions of 7790 Mt. CO₂ by 2020. The power grid, thermal energy, and anode consumption contributed 66.7 %, 19.1 %, and 9.8 % of the emissions, respectively. Spatial-temporal analysis indicates that the unstable supply of hydropower may hinder the ongoing migration of aluminium production capacity from East and Central China to the Southwest. Decarbonising the power grid in North and Northwest China should be the next priority. Moreover, we proposed six mitigation strategies, including production control, energy conservation, hydrogen application, power grid decarbonisation, inert anode application, and carbon capture. Scenario analysis demonstrates that achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, or even as early as 2053, is feasible. Cost analysis further suggests that, with rising carbon prices, new technologies such as hydrogen production are expected to become cost-competitive around 2050.

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中国铝工业碳中和之路探索：1950 - 2060年分析

中国铝工业的温室气体排放量占全球铝生产温室气体排放量的55%。鉴于中国雄心勃勃的净零排放目标，探索铝行业的碳中和之路至关重要。在这项研究中，我们追踪了自1950年以来中国铝生产的历史温室气体排放量，揭示了到2020年累计排放量为7.79亿吨二氧化碳。电网、热能和阳极消耗分别占总排放量的66.7%、19.1%和9.8%。时空分析表明，水电供应不稳定可能会阻碍铝产能从华东和华中向西南地区的持续迁移。中国北方和西北地区的电网脱碳应该是下一个重点。此外，我们提出了六项缓解策略，包括生产控制、节能、氢应用、电网脱碳、惰性阳极应用和碳捕获。情景分析表明，到2060年，甚至最早在2053年实现碳中和是可行的。成本分析进一步表明，随着碳价格的上涨，氢生产等新技术预计将在2050年左右具有成本竞争力。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Applied Energy 工程技术-工程：化工

CiteScore

21.20

自引率

10.70%

发文量

1830

审稿时长

41 days

期刊介绍： Applied Energy serves as a platform for sharing innovations, research, development, and demonstrations in energy conversion, conservation, and sustainable energy systems. The journal covers topics such as optimal energy resource use, environmental pollutant mitigation, and energy process analysis. It welcomes original papers, review articles, technical notes, and letters to the editor. Authors are encouraged to submit manuscripts that bridge the gap between research, development, and implementation. The journal addresses a wide spectrum of topics, including fossil and renewable energy technologies, energy economics, and environmental impacts. Applied Energy also explores modeling and forecasting, conservation strategies, and the social and economic implications of energy policies, including climate change mitigation. It is complemented by the open-access journal Advances in Applied Energy.