How do environmental concerns and global economic conditions affect energy prices?

IF 9.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2025-05-12 DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114680

Sami Ben Jabeur , Sabri Boubaker , Pedro Carmona , Nicolae Stef

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Abstract

The price of oil can be a catalyst for the transition to a low-carbon economy as it may encourage households, firms, and local authorities to adopt a greener behavior. However, anticipating the mechanisms that drive oil price fluctuations is difficult. The oil market represents a complex system where different components can be subject to nonlinear dynamics that affect the system's structure. In this framework of the complexity theory, we utilized the quantification of asymmetric dependence (qad) method and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to investigate the simultaneous impact of different factors on the monthly crude oil price. Our findings reveal that a combination of conditions – including strong global economic conditions, low awareness about climate change concerns, and minimal change in global surface temperature – is strongly linked to higher crude oil prices. Additionally, the fsQCA analysis identified three major conditions that are necessary to attain a high level of oil price, namely improved global economic conditions (1), low levels of geopolitical risks (2), and low levels of real interest rate (3). This paper highlights how policymakers, financial institutions, and analysts could use fsQCA to assess the simultaneous influence of independent factors on Brent trading prices.

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环境问题和全球经济状况如何影响能源价格？

石油价格可以成为向低碳经济转型的催化剂，因为它可以鼓励家庭、企业和地方当局采取更环保的行为。然而，预测驱动油价波动的机制是困难的。石油市场是一个复杂的系统，不同的组成部分可能会受到非线性动力学的影响，从而影响系统的结构。在复杂性理论的框架下，我们采用量化的不对称依赖（qad）方法和模糊集定性比较分析（fsQCA）方法来研究不同因素对月度原油价格的同时影响。我们的研究结果表明，一系列条件——包括强劲的全球经济状况、对气候变化担忧的认识不足以及全球地表温度的微小变化——与原油价格上涨密切相关。此外，fsQCA分析确定了实现高油价所必需的三个主要条件，即全球经济状况改善(1)，地缘政治风险水平低(2)，实际利率水平低(3)。本文强调了政策制定者、金融机构和分析师如何使用fsQCA来评估独立因素对布伦特原油交易价格的同时影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Energy Policy 管理科学-环境科学

CiteScore

17.30

自引率

5.60%

发文量

540

审稿时长

7.9 months

期刊介绍： Energy policy is the manner in which a given entity (often governmental) has decided to address issues of energy development including energy conversion, distribution and use as well as reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in order to contribute to climate change mitigation. The attributes of energy policy may include legislation, international treaties, incentives to investment, guidelines for energy conservation, taxation and other public policy techniques. Energy policy is closely related to climate change policy because totalled worldwide the energy sector emits more greenhouse gas than other sectors.