Population Urbanization and Urban Water Security in China: Challenges for Sustainable Development Under SDGs Framework

Abstract

China's rapid population urbanization over recent decades has posed significant challenges to sustainable urban development, particularly in ensuring water resource security. Within the sustainable development goals (SDGs) framework, this study explores the multidimensional mechanisms underlying population urbanization and water resource security by integrating spatial and econometric analyses. Spatial kernel density estimation and obstacle degree model were employed to assess the dynamic trends of population urbanization and water resource security across China. Subsequently, econometric analyses using random effects models, difference‐in‐differences models, and spatial durbin models were conducted to evaluate causal relationships and spatial dependencies. Empirical results demonstrate that China's population urbanization enhances water resource security largely due to the agglomeration effect of population density and improved water infrastructure development. However, regional economic growth often occurs at the expense of environmental quality, highlighting the critical need for strengthened protection of wetlands and forests and enhanced regulation of industrial wastewater discharge. Further analysis confirms that: (1) the impact of population urbanization on water resource security remains consistent with the benchmark regression results in both short‐term and long‐term effects; (2) population density and years of education positively moderate the relationship between population urbanization and water resource security; (3) spatial heterogeneity is evident, showing negative externalities from population urbanization in eastern and central provinces on neighboring regions' water resource security, whereas population urbanization in western provinces significantly improved local water resource security without significant externalities. Based on these insights, this study proposes targeted management strategies to mitigate negative spillovers, enhance regional cooperation, and integrate water resource governance into sustainable urban planning.