Resource and emission savings from material efficiency strategies for passenger vehicles in China’s provinces

IF 11.2 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL

Resources Conservation and Recycling Pub Date : 2025-05-10 DOI:10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108349

Huimei Li , Stefan Pauliuk , Yang Liu , Xin Sun , Peng Wang , Wei-Qiang Chen

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Abstract

Decarbonizing China’s passenger vehicle sector is crucial for carbon neutrality goals. While electrification alone may not suffice due to scope 3 emissions, material efficiency (ME) represents a complementary pillar. However, ME’s overall benefits across China’s provinces remain unclear. This study applied the RECC model to estimate nine ME strategies’ impacts on bulk material production and GHG emissions across 31 provinces from 2023 to 2050. Results show the national vehicle fleet size will increase to 415–579 million units by 2050, depending on socio-economic scenarios. Ambitious ME strategies and lower mobility demand will save 2023–2050 cumulative primary material production by 1055 Mt. Low-carbon energy supply and ME strategies could enable China to meet its 2030 peak targets under high mobility demand and reduce emissions to 423 Mt by 2050. Notably, the southwest region would experience a greater GHG reduction from ME strategies than coastal regions, primarily driven by ride-sharing and vehicle downsizing.

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中国各省乘用车材料效率策略的资源和排放节约

中国乘用车行业的脱碳对实现碳中和目标至关重要。虽然由于第3类排放，仅电气化可能还不够，但材料效率（ME）是一个补充支柱。然而，ME在中国各省的总体效益仍不明朗。本研究运用RECC模型估算了中国31个省份2023 - 2050年9个ME策略对大宗材料生产和温室气体排放的影响。结果显示，到2050年，全国车辆规模将增加到4.15 - 5.79亿辆，这取决于社会经济情景。雄心勃勃的ME战略和较低的机动性需求将使2023-2050年累计初级材料产量减少1055亿吨。低碳能源供应和ME战略可以使中国在高机动性需求下实现2030年的峰值目标，到2050年将排放量减少到4.23亿吨。值得注意的是，西南地区将比沿海地区从ME战略中获得更多的温室气体减排，这主要是由拼车和车辆小型化驱动的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Resources Conservation and Recycling 环境科学-工程：环境

CiteScore

22.90

自引率

6.10%

发文量

625

审稿时长

23 days

期刊介绍： The journal Resources, Conservation & Recycling welcomes contributions from research, which consider sustainable management and conservation of resources. The journal prioritizes understanding the transformation processes crucial for transitioning toward more sustainable production and consumption systems. It highlights technological, economic, institutional, and policy aspects related to specific resource management practices such as conservation, recycling, and resource substitution, as well as broader strategies like improving resource productivity and restructuring production and consumption patterns. Contributions may address regional, national, or international scales and can range from individual resources or technologies to entire sectors or systems. Authors are encouraged to explore scientific and methodological issues alongside practical, environmental, and economic implications. However, manuscripts focusing solely on laboratory experiments without discussing their broader implications will not be considered for publication in the journal.