Dynamics and scenarios of embodied carbon emissions in China’s pulp and paper industry

IF 11.2 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL

Resources Conservation and Recycling Pub Date : 2025-05-09 DOI:10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108364

Xiangyao Liang , Mengna Hong , Yi Man , Zhenglei He

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Abstract

Pulp and Paper Industry (PPI) is one of the key sectors emitting tremendous carbon emission and is widely distributed in the Belt and Road Initiative countries. This research analyzes the embodied carbon emissions (ECE) in this area with influence mechanisms. A system dynamics model was built to predict the effects of various scenarios on ECE by adjusting factors such as the economic growth rate of the PPI and carbon trading policies. The results indicate that the per capita output effect and indirect carbon emission intensity foremostly drive ECE in China’s PPI, and it is recommended to be collaborated with sectors involved in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water to develop policies. In scenario-based analysis, economic growth and carbon trading policies show varied positive effects in this regard, and the target can be achieved in the designed scenario of reducing carbon intensity to below 65 % of the 2005 level. The findings provide insights into the carbon reduction for PPI and similar industries in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative.

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中国纸浆造纸工业隐含碳排放动态与情景分析

制浆造纸工业（PPI）是碳排放量巨大的关键行业之一，在“一带一路”沿线国家分布广泛。本研究分析了该地区隐含碳排放（ECE）及其影响机制。通过调整PPI的经济增长率和碳交易政策等因素，建立系统动力学模型，预测不同情景对ECE的影响。结果表明，人均产出效应和间接碳排放强度对中国生产者价格指数的影响最大，建议与电力、热力、燃气和水的生产和供应部门合作制定政策。在基于情景的分析中，经济增长和碳交易政策在这方面表现出不同的积极影响，并且在设计的情景中将碳强度降低到2005年水平的65%以下的目标可以实现。研究结果为“一带一路”沿线国家的PPI和类似行业的碳减排提供了见解。

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来源期刊

Resources Conservation and Recycling 环境科学-工程：环境

CiteScore

22.90

自引率

6.10%

发文量

625

审稿时长

23 days

期刊介绍： The journal Resources, Conservation & Recycling welcomes contributions from research, which consider sustainable management and conservation of resources. The journal prioritizes understanding the transformation processes crucial for transitioning toward more sustainable production and consumption systems. It highlights technological, economic, institutional, and policy aspects related to specific resource management practices such as conservation, recycling, and resource substitution, as well as broader strategies like improving resource productivity and restructuring production and consumption patterns. Contributions may address regional, national, or international scales and can range from individual resources or technologies to entire sectors or systems. Authors are encouraged to explore scientific and methodological issues alongside practical, environmental, and economic implications. However, manuscripts focusing solely on laboratory experiments without discussing their broader implications will not be considered for publication in the journal.