Exogenous risk assessment of a Belt-and-Road renewable energy project

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy Pub Date : 2025-05-10 DOI:10.1016/j.jup.2025.101956

Xuan Zhao , Benhong Peng , Chaoyu Zheng

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Along the "Belt and Road," renewable energy projects face exogenous risks. Given the multifaceted impact pathways through which these risks manifest, it is imperative to conduct timely and accurate assessments of such risks. This study endeavors to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system tailored to the exogenous risks associated with renewable energy projects along the "Belt and Road" route. By integrating the G1 and CRITIC methods for composite weighting, the study derives the comprehensive weight of each indicator within the system. This study acknowledges the inherent uncertainty characteristics of exogenous risks by employing the measurement uncertainty theory to assess project risk. This approach enables more precise quantification of uncertainty and incomplete information, empowering enterprises to respond to exogenous risks more effectively. The findings reveal that the exogenous risk-impact-response evaluation model not only effectively mitigates the subjectivity inherent in expert cognition but also adeptly manages the uncertainty and suddenness associated with the impact of exogenous risks on renewable energy projects. Consequently, this model assists enterprises in implementing timely risk prevention and management measures, thereby enhancing their resilience and adaptability in the face of such challenges.

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“一带一路”可再生能源项目外生风险评估

“一带一路”沿线可再生能源项目面临外生风险。鉴于这些风险表现出来的影响途径是多方面的，必须对这些风险进行及时和准确的评估。本研究试图构建一个针对“一带一路”沿线可再生能源项目外生风险的综合评价指标体系。通过综合G1法和CRITIC法进行综合加权，得出系统内各指标的综合权重。本研究承认外生风险固有的不确定性特征，采用测量不确定性理论对项目风险进行评估。这种方法可以更精确地量化不确定性和不完整信息，使企业能够更有效地应对外生风险。研究结果表明，外生风险-影响-响应评价模型不仅有效地减轻了专家认知的主观性，而且能够很好地管理外生风险对可再生能源项目影响的不确定性和突然性。因此，该模型有助于企业及时实施风险防范和管理措施，从而增强企业面对此类挑战的韧性和适应性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Utilities Policy ENERGY & FUELS-ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

10.00%

发文量

审稿时长

66 days

期刊介绍： Utilities Policy is deliberately international, interdisciplinary, and intersectoral. Articles address utility trends and issues in both developed and developing economies. Authors and reviewers come from various disciplines, including economics, political science, sociology, law, finance, accounting, management, and engineering. Areas of focus include the utility and network industries providing essential electricity, natural gas, water and wastewater, solid waste, communications, broadband, postal, and public transportation services. Utilities Policy invites submissions that apply various quantitative and qualitative methods. Contributions are welcome from both established and emerging scholars as well as accomplished practitioners. Interdisciplinary, comparative, and applied works are encouraged. Submissions to the journal should have a clear focus on governance, performance, and/or analysis of public utilities with an aim toward informing the policymaking process and providing recommendations as appropriate. Relevant topics and issues include but are not limited to industry structures and ownership, market design and dynamics, economic development, resource planning, system modeling, accounting and finance, infrastructure investment, supply and demand efficiency, strategic management and productivity, network operations and integration, supply chains, adaptation and flexibility, service-quality standards, benchmarking and metrics, benefit-cost analysis, behavior and incentives, pricing and demand response, economic and environmental regulation, regulatory performance and impact, restructuring and deregulation, and policy institutions.