Assessment of the impacts of climate change on a world heritage site in Greece

Abstract

Climate change is exacerbating the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, threatening cultural heritage sites. This research focuses on the Dion monument in Pieria, Greece, a significant cultural heritage site historically affected by severe rainfall. Trends in temperature and precipitation over both historical (1971–2000) and future (2021–2100) periods are analyzed through extreme climate indices analysis, using data from the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment for European Domain (EUROCORDEX) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. Historical analysis provides a baseline for past climate variability, while future projections reveal emerging cultural heritage risks. This analysis identifies critical climate risks, such as rising temperatures and an increased frequency of intense rainfall events that contribute to flooding. To achieve high-resolution insights into extreme rainfall dynamics, dynamical downscaling is applied using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with the Advanced Research WRF dynamic solver (WRF-ARW). By simulating the 2017 Medicane in Greece, the model demonstrates its efficacy in capturing complex precipitation phenomena at a fine spatial scale (1 km resolution). The integration of extreme climate indices analysis for long-term trend assessment with dynamical downscaling for event-specific simulations provides a comprehensive assessment of climate-induced hazards, facilitating the development of informed conservation and risk management strategies aimed at safeguarding cultural heritage sites under evolving climate conditions.