How does economic growth targets influence vegetation dynamics? Evidence from China

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2025-05-06 DOI:10.1016/j.eap.2025.05.010

Siqi Yan, Jian Wang, Qun Wu

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Abstract

Setting economic growth targets (EGTs) is an essential tool for governments worldwide to implement macroeconomic management, and its significant environmental impacts is commonly accepted. However, research on EGTs’ influence on vegetation dynamics remains limited. Using fixed effects modeling and instrumental variable techniques, this study analyzes EGTs’ impact on vegetation conditions and underlying mechanisms in 286 Chinese cities (2011–2022). Fiscal pressure-dependent nonlinearities in the effect of EGTs on vegetation status is examined through panel threshold modeling. Results show that EGTs negatively affects vegetation status. EGTs’ adverse impact upon vegetation conditions is stronger in resource-based or secondary industry-led cities. Mechanism analysis reveals that EGTs unfavorably influences vegetation status through fostering urban expansion and driving local governments to lessen intensity of environmental regulation. Threshold effect analysis indicates that as local fiscal pressure increases, disadvantageous impact of EGTs on vegetation conditions tends to be more intense. This study provides important theoretical insights into institutional determinants of vegetation dynamics, and has significant policy implications for optimizing management of EGTs and promoting vegetation conservation.

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经济增长目标如何影响植被动态？来自中国的证据

设定经济增长目标是各国政府实施宏观经济管理的重要工具，其对环境的重大影响是公认的。然而，EGTs对植被动态影响的研究仍然有限。利用固定效应模型和工具变量技术，分析了2011-2022年中国286个城市EGTs对植被条件的影响及其机制。通过面板阈值模型研究了EGTs对植被状态影响的财政压力相关非线性。结果表明，EGTs对植被状况有负面影响。在资源型城市和第二产业主导城市，环境污染对植被状况的不利影响更大。机制分析表明，生态环境技术通过促进城市扩张和促使地方政府降低环境规制力度对植被状况产生不利影响。阈值效应分析表明，随着地方财政压力的增加，政府间气候变化对植被状况的不利影响趋于强烈。该研究为植被动态的制度决定因素提供了重要的理论见解，并对优化egt管理和促进植被保护具有重要的政策意义。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Economic Analysis and Policy ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

9.80

自引率

9.20%

发文量

231

审稿时长

93 days

期刊介绍： Economic Analysis and Policy (established 1970) publishes articles from all branches of economics with a particular focus on research, theoretical and applied, which has strong policy relevance. The journal also publishes survey articles and empirical replications on key policy issues. Authors are expected to highlight the main insights in a non-technical introduction and in the conclusion.