Weather and climate extremes in Nigeria: Modeling the perceived impact of spatial planning and community practices on windstorm and flood exposure using PLS-SEM and correlogram

Abstract

The study examines the interplay between spatial planning, community disaster practices, and the impacts of weather and climate-related extreme events (WCEE) in urban neighborhoods. Using a multi-method approach based on Sankey diagrams, Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), and R, we analyze survey data from 259 respondents across nine frequently affected neighborhoods. The Sankey diagram demonstrates the flow and patterns of the strong connection between WCEE, climate change, and local human factors. PLS-SEM models the direct effects of perceived local human factors within spatial planning and community risk practices on WCEE exposure and impact. Using 19 items within four latent constructs based on a reflective-formative measurement model, the analysis reveals that respondents view these factors as significantly affecting disaster outcomes. Additionally, R's correlogram identifies specific neighborhood vulnerabilities contributing to increased WCEE exposure and impact. The findings underscore the need for achieving city-wide disaster risk reduction strategies that integrate spatial planning, policy development, and inclusive community engagement.