Quantifying Time-Dependent Predictors for the International Spatial Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5NX: Focus on Trade and Surveillance Efforts
Lina Awada, Bram Vrancken, Julien Thézé, Christian Ducrot, Paolo Tizzani, Simon Dellicour, Alice Fusaro, Karine Chalvet-Monfray
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
The multiple waves of intercontinental transmission of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5Nx Gs/GD lineage since its identification in 1996 are testament to its resistance to control and prevention efforts. Knowledge of the predictors of HPAI international spread can help identify strengths as well as areas for improvement in surveillance and controlling HPAI. We used 10 years of data with quarterly granularity from the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH), United Nations (UN), International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), and genetic databases for 2.3.2.1c and 2.3.4.4b H5Nx clades, to determine the impact on international viral spread of (1) six categories of poultry commodities of legal international trade, (2) wild birds’ migration, (3) five types of preventive measures, (4) resources allocated to veterinary services, and (5) geographic distance between countries. Two analytical approaches were used: a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) for all targeted countries, based on epidemiological, trade, and bird migration data. Then, phylogeography-informed generalized linear models (GLMs) with time-dependent predictors were specified for analyzing the HPAI spread between countries with available genetic data. The main conclusions of this study are that results suggested (1) a role of poultry trade in disease spread; (2) a role of migratory birds in disease spread; (3) a strong role of proximity between countries in disease spread; (4) a protective effect for resources allocated to veterinary services; and (5) a protective effect for precautions at borders in exposed countries (protective against informal trade). Our findings show the importance of proper implementation of preventive measures, as advocated in WOAH standards. In addition, our results show the complementarity of epidemiological, trade, biological, and genetic data to trace back international H5NX spread.
期刊介绍：
Transboundary and Emerging Diseases brings together in one place the latest research on infectious diseases considered to hold the greatest economic threat to animals and humans worldwide. The journal provides a venue for global research on their diagnosis, prevention and management, and for papers on public health, pathogenesis, epidemiology, statistical modeling, diagnostics, biosecurity issues, genomics, vaccine development and rapid communication of new outbreaks. Papers should include timely research approaches using state-of-the-art technologies. The editors encourage papers adopting a science-based approach on socio-economic and environmental factors influencing the management of the bio-security threat posed by these diseases, including risk analysis and disease spread modeling. Preference will be given to communications focusing on novel science-based approaches to controlling transboundary and emerging diseases. The following topics are generally considered out-of-scope, but decisions are made on a case-by-case basis (for example, studies on cryptic wildlife populations, and those on potential species extinctions):
Pathogen discovery: a common pathogen newly recognised in a specific country, or a new pathogen or genetic sequence for which there is little context about — or insights regarding — its emergence or spread.
Prevalence estimation surveys and risk factor studies based on survey (rather than longitudinal) methodology, except when such studies are unique. Surveys of knowledge, attitudes and practices are within scope.
Diagnostic test development if not accompanied by robust sensitivity and specificity estimation from field studies.
Studies focused only on laboratory methods in which relevance to disease emergence and spread is not obvious or can not be inferred (“pure research” type studies).
Narrative literature reviews which do not generate new knowledge. Systematic and scoping reviews, and meta-analyses are within scope.
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