Management strategy evaluation of stored grain using global sensitivity analysis: Part II – allowable maximum variations of temperatures and moisture contents of hemp seeds and durum wheat

Abstract

To avoid spoilage of stored grain, the allowable maximum variations of temperatures and moisture contents of different grain types should be characterized. Using the global sensitivity analysis method and procedure which were described in Part I, this study answered the following questions: what is the allowed maximum variation of grain moisture content when the average moisture content is at the recommended safe storage moisture content? What is the allowed maximum temperature variation? Whether should a large variation of initial germination be considered during the development of storage plan? Mathematical models published in literature for predicting germination reduction of hemp seeds and durum wheat were coded in Symbiology and Simulink for conducting more than 4000 simulations. Random and normal distributions of temperatures, moisture contents, and initial germinations were simulated. The simulated temperatures, moisture contents, and initial germinations were the same as that presented in Part I. The simulations concluded that hemp seeds were more sensitive to temperature than durum wheat and storing hemp seeds at ≥ 23 $°C$ or storing wheat at ≥ 28 $°C$ was a risk regardless of the moisture content. The storage risk level from high to low at the same condition was hemp seeds, canola, and durum wheat. The allowable maximum standard error of moisture content for one third of the safe storage time was 0.1 and 0.5 percentage point at any temperature for hemp seeds and durum wheat, respectively. Interaction effects between temperature and moisture content were more significant along with the increase of storage time.