Tracing carbon-water pressures in the Belt and Road Initiative region from a "historical-future" perspective

Abstract

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has driven industrialization and urbanization in participating countries, thereby intensifying environmental degradation. However, the long-term carbon-water pressures faced by BRI countries remain underexplored. Here we propose a four-stage analytical approach based on the Tapio and improved STIRPAT models, integrating measurement, decoupling, decomposition, and prediction modules to track these pressures, relationships, driving factors, and long-term effects in 145 sample countries. Results reveal significant spatial heterogeneity in carbon-water pressures, with the highest levels observed in Asian. The decoupling states between economic development and carbon-water pressures generally improved following the launch of the BRI policy, although challenges remain in certain regions. Technological progress mitigates carbon-water pressures, whereas population growth exacerbates them. Economic development shows an inverted U-shaped relationship with carbon-water pressure, supporting the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Projections under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios indicate that the contribution of economic development to carbon pressure peaks in 2029 ∼ 2033, while water pressure peaks in 2025 ∼ 2026 in the BRI region.