Copper demand forecast for the transport sector under China’s Carbon neutrality target

IF 11.2 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL

Resources Conservation and Recycling Pub Date : 2025-05-08 DOI:10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108346

Shitong Zhang , Biying Yu , Zixuan Zhou , Jinxiao Tan , Xiao-Chen Yuan , Yi-Ming Wei

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Abstract

China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets will accelerate electrification of transport sector and the development of related infrastructures, resulting in a substantial increase in copper demand. However, China's scarce copper reserves pose potential supply risks for copper. Existing research predominantly addresses the copper demand for road transport vehicles, with less attention on other transport vehicles and transport infrastructures. Consequently, this study combines national energy technology and logistic model to forecast copper demand and recycling scale under China's carbon targets for the whole transport sector. Results show copper demand is projected to reach between 5.53 and 5.94 million tons by 2060 for the transport sector. The supply-demand gap for copper is expected to widen and reach between 92.6 and 102.4 million tons in 2060. The recycling of copper can effectively mitigate the supply-demand gap, which can meet 18.9 %-35.3 % of copper demand by 2030, and 38.8 %-74.2 % by 2060, respectively.

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中国碳中和目标下的交通运输行业铜需求预测

中国的碳峰值和碳中和目标将加速交通运输部门的电气化和相关基础设施的发展，从而导致铜需求大幅增加。然而，中国稀缺的铜储备对铜构成了潜在的供应风险。现有的研究主要针对道路运输车辆的铜需求，对其他运输车辆和运输基础设施的关注较少。因此，本研究将国家能源技术与物流模型相结合，对中国整个交通运输行业碳目标下的铜需求和回收规模进行了预测。结果显示，到2060年，运输部门对铜的需求预计将达到553万吨至594万吨。铜的供需缺口预计将扩大，到2060年将达到9260 - 1.024亿吨。铜的回收利用可有效缓解供需缺口，到2030年可满足18.9% ~ 35.3%的铜需求，到2060年可满足38.8% ~ 74.2%的铜需求。

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来源期刊

Resources Conservation and Recycling 环境科学-工程：环境

CiteScore

22.90

自引率

6.10%

发文量

625

审稿时长

23 days

期刊介绍： The journal Resources, Conservation & Recycling welcomes contributions from research, which consider sustainable management and conservation of resources. The journal prioritizes understanding the transformation processes crucial for transitioning toward more sustainable production and consumption systems. It highlights technological, economic, institutional, and policy aspects related to specific resource management practices such as conservation, recycling, and resource substitution, as well as broader strategies like improving resource productivity and restructuring production and consumption patterns. Contributions may address regional, national, or international scales and can range from individual resources or technologies to entire sectors or systems. Authors are encouraged to explore scientific and methodological issues alongside practical, environmental, and economic implications. However, manuscripts focusing solely on laboratory experiments without discussing their broader implications will not be considered for publication in the journal.