Estimating changes in life expectancy in Hong Kong during the COVID-19 pandemic: a longitudinal ecological study

IF 7.6 1区医学 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES

The Lancet Regional Health: Western Pacific Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI:10.1016/j.lanwpc.2025.101571

Alexandra H.T. Law , Anne M. Presanis , Justin K. Cheung , Peng Wu , C. Mary Schooling , Benjamin J. Cowling , Jessica Y. Wong

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

Hong Kong has one of the longest life expectancies in the world but was heavily impacted by COVID-19 in 2022. We aimed to estimate patterns in mortality rates and changes in life expectancy in Hong Kong during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

We constructed sex-specific life tables from 1998 to 2023 using parametric bootstrapping to account for statistical uncertainty in mortality rates. We used Arriaga’s decomposition method to estimate age- and cause-specific contributions to overall changes in life expectancy for 2020–2023, with 2019 as the reference year. We also estimated cause-specific mortality rates.

Findings

Hong Kong reported 50,666 deaths in 2020, 51,354 in 2021, 63,692 in 2022, and 54,731 in 2023. Estimates of life expectancy in males and females in 2020 and 2021 were similar to the pre-pandemic trend from 1998 to 2019 but declined significantly in 2022. Compared to the pre-pandemic trend, the 2022 values of 80.4 years for males and 86.4 years for females corresponded to reductions by 2.22 (95% CI: 2.08, 2.36) years in males and 2.30 (95% CI: 2.17, 2.43) years in females. The loss in life expectancy in 2022 was mainly attributed to increased respiratory mortality rates, with a negative contribution to life expectancy of 1.47 and 1.26 years for males and females respectively. In 2023 life expectancy increased by 0.60 (95% CI: 0.46, 0.75) years in males and by 1.10 (95% CI: 0.95, 1.26) years in females.

Interpretation

In 2022 a very high respiratory mortality rate in older adults in Hong Kong during the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a reduction in life expectancy by more than 2 years. In 2023 life expectancy increased towards the pre-pandemic trend.

Funding

Health and Medical Research Fund, Hong Kong.

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估计新冠肺炎大流行期间香港人预期寿命的变化：一项纵向生态学研究

香港是世界上预期寿命最长的地区之一，但在2022年受到COVID-19的严重影响。我们的目的是估计COVID-19大流行期间香港死亡率和预期寿命变化的模式。方法采用参数自举法构建1998年至2023年的性别生命表，以解释死亡率的统计不确定性。我们使用Arriaga的分解方法，以2019年为参考年，估计了年龄和特定原因对2020-2023年预期寿命总体变化的贡献。我们还估计了特定病因的死亡率。香港在2020年报告了50,666例死亡，2021年为51,354例，2022年为63,692例，2023年为54,731例。2020年和2021年男性和女性的预期寿命估计值与1998年至2019年大流行前的趋势相似，但在2022年大幅下降。与大流行前的趋势相比，2022年的数值为男性80.4岁，女性86.4岁，相当于男性减少2.22岁（95% CI: 2.08, 2.36），女性减少2.30岁（95% CI: 2.17, 2.43）。2022年预期寿命下降的主要原因是呼吸系统死亡率上升，对男性和女性预期寿命的负面影响分别为1.47岁和1.26岁。2023年，男性预期寿命增加0.60年（95% CI: 0.46, 0.75），女性预期寿命增加1.10年（95% CI: 0.95, 1.26）。2022年，在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间，香港老年人的呼吸道死亡率非常高，预期寿命缩短了2年多。2023年，预期寿命接近大流行前的趋势。资助香港卫生及医学研究基金

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

The Lancet Regional Health: Western Pacific Medicine-Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

2.80%

发文量

305

审稿时长

11 weeks

期刊介绍： The Lancet Regional Health – Western Pacific, a gold open access journal, is an integral part of The Lancet's global initiative advocating for healthcare quality and access worldwide. It aims to advance clinical practice and health policy in the Western Pacific region, contributing to enhanced health outcomes. The journal publishes high-quality original research shedding light on clinical practice and health policy in the region. It also includes reviews, commentaries, and opinion pieces covering diverse regional health topics, such as infectious diseases, non-communicable diseases, child and adolescent health, maternal and reproductive health, aging health, mental health, the health workforce and systems, and health policy.