High-income groups disproportionately contribute to climate extremes worldwide

IF 29.6 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-05-07 DOI:10.1038/s41558-025-02325-x

Sarah Schöngart, Zebedee Nicholls, Roman Hoffmann, Setu Pelz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Climate injustice persists as those least responsible often bear the greatest impacts, both between and within countries. Here we show how GHG emissions from consumption and investments attributable to the wealthiest population groups have disproportionately influenced present-day climate change. We link emissions inequality over the period 1990–2020 to regional climate extremes using an emulator-based framework. We find that two-thirds (one-fifth) of warming is attributable to the wealthiest 10% (1%), meaning that individual contributions are 6.5 (20) times the average per capita contribution. For extreme events, the top 10% (1%) contributed 7 (26) times the average to increases in monthly 1-in-100-year heat extremes globally and 6 (17) times more to Amazon droughts. Emissions from the wealthiest 10% in the United States and China led to a two- to threefold increase in heat extremes across vulnerable regions. Quantifying the link between wealth disparities and climate impacts can assist in the discourse on climate equity and justice.

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高收入群体对全球极端气候的影响不成比例

气候不公正现象依然存在，因为在国家之间和国家内部，责任最小的国家往往承受着最大的影响。在这里，我们展示了可归因于最富裕人群的消费和投资的温室气体排放如何不成比例地影响了当今的气候变化。我们使用基于模拟器的框架将1990-2020年期间的排放不平等与区域极端气候联系起来。我们发现三分之二（五分之一）的变暖是由最富有的10%（1%）造成的，这意味着个人贡献是人均贡献的6.5（20）倍。就极端事件而言，前10%（1%）对全球每月百年一遇的极端高温事件的贡献是平均值的7（26）倍，对亚马逊地区干旱的贡献是平均值的6（17）倍。美国和中国最富有的10%人口的排放导致脆弱地区极端高温事件增加了两到三倍。量化财富差距与气候影响之间的联系有助于讨论气候公平和正义。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Nature Climate Change ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

CiteScore

40.30

自引率

1.60%

发文量

267

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Nature Climate Change is dedicated to addressing the scientific challenge of understanding Earth's changing climate and its societal implications. As a monthly journal, it publishes significant and cutting-edge research on the nature, causes, and impacts of global climate change, as well as its implications for the economy, policy, and the world at large. The journal publishes original research spanning the natural and social sciences, synthesizing interdisciplinary research to provide a comprehensive understanding of climate change. It upholds the high standards set by all Nature-branded journals, ensuring top-tier original research through a fair and rigorous review process, broad readership access, high standards of copy editing and production, rapid publication, and independence from academic societies and other vested interests. Nature Climate Change serves as a platform for discussion among experts, publishing opinion, analysis, and review articles. It also features Research Highlights to highlight important developments in the field and original reporting from renowned science journalists in the form of feature articles. Topics covered in the journal include adaptation, atmospheric science, ecology, economics, energy, impacts and vulnerability, mitigation, oceanography, policy, sociology, and sustainability, among others.